Perhaps it's time to focus on Irma, and what people in South Florida are doing to protect their boats. It's always a good idea to have a plan. By the way Saint Irma is the patron saint of women who've been abused or molested. Hermina Grivot , also known as Irma Grivot, Saint Irma or Saint Hermina, born in 1866 in France, beheaded in 1900 in China. I predict that she will pass right over Mar a Lago at full strength and just sit there for a few days ;-) If I was anywhere in the vicinity, I'd be for making an escape while I could!! This is said to be the most wrathful hurricane ever recorded in the Atlantic, with winds approaching 200 mph.
H.W.
Absolutely true.
I split this post off from the thread on Hurricane Harvey (http://sailfar.net/forum/index.php?topic=4898.0)... so many of our members are in the path of this killer storm. I have been refreshing the projections on bearpaws over and over hoping for a shift to the East to take her out to sea....
So many of our members in her path, so much destruction already.
I do want to say that there is a real risk that the suffering of those already hit by Harvey is not past..... I fear their plight may be made worse as resources, and attention shifts to Irma.
Who all is in her path?
Kurt, what kind of web have you weaved for your fleet (surely an example)...
Frank, any word from contacts? Anything on your cottage? Is your boat in Black Sound or Indiantown?
Where is everyone in their prep?
I hope everyone of you gets through this one unharmed!
I have seen pictures from Sint Martin and the phrase "paradise lost" comes to mind.
I fear the Caribbean will never be the same as the many stories I have fueld my dreams with.
Stay safe everyone!
From Bearpaws Tropical Weather (http://www.bearpawsweather.com/tropical/index.html)....
Good luck to everyone down that way.
May God look over all of those in the islands that have lost everything.
Doesn't one of the sailfar members live on their boat in Marathon?
I will be leaving tomorrow afternoon westbound on the icw heading towards perdido bay from panama city. Do not trust this storm until it turns . I figure another 100 miles between us won't hurt.this is the first time I have ever moved for a storm. Went through Opal in Mobile back in 95 or 96.
Looks like NHC has shifted the track slightly West... good news for Georgia and the Carolina's... hope it disapates quickly!
Quote from: Lars on September 07, 2017, 05:44:30 PM
I will be leaving tomorrow afternoon westbound on the icw heading towards perdido bay from panama city. Do not trust this storm until it turns . I figure another 100 miles between us won't hurt.this is the first time I have ever moved for a storm. Went through Opal in Mobile back in 95 or 96.
Wise move. Faith is on the hard north of Pensacola.... I think a turn that far West is pretty unlikely at this point....
Best of luck to all of you! If anyone evacuates by highway as far north as Indiana....I have a few extra rooms and a large fenced yard that will hold many large trucks/campers/trailer boats. I am in Columbus In. 2miles off I-65. 70 miles north of Louisville, 40 miles south of Indy. Open invitation.
I think Bubba and his WS32 Emma are/were in Fort Pierce. Wishing the best to him and anyone else down there. This year's hurricane season makes me never want to come south again.
Quote from: Lars on September 07, 2017, 05:44:30 PM
I will be leaving tomorrow afternoon westbound on the icw heading towards perdido bay from panama city. Do not trust this storm until it turns . I figure another 100 miles between us won't hurt.this is the first time I have ever moved for a storm. Went through Opal in Mobile back in 95 or 96.
A wise move I suspect........ Most folks in Florida in the projected path of Irma don't have that sort of option....... From the sat view, it looks like the Perdido river up toward Seminole would offer some excellent very isolated and protected hurricane holes if one were staying on board. On the Atlantic coast there looks to be no place to run....no place to hide. You can't run away to the north very well, with the hurricane nipping at your heels all the way. With the storm moving at 16 mph estimated, one would need a lot of head start to stay ahead, especially as the rotational winds are completely against you, unlike Harvey where the winds would have been in your favor sailing to Mexico, but of course Katia hit that area shortly after Harvey. Bermuda looks like a refuge from Irma, but it is right in the crosshairs of Jose coming along behind it.
If I currently had a sailboat, I'd want to be cruising Scotland or Norway, or BC or the Inside Passage right now. The southeast coast, gulf, and Caribbean look really unhealthy. The only safe place to be is on the bottom in very deep water.
H.W.
Who do we have where in Irma's path?
The current track over land will be devastating for the keys, Miami and south Florida.... but if it holds could really knock the storm down to quite survivable levels for many people North...
Be safe everyone!
My oldest son, three grand kids and 6 great grand kids in Jacksonville and Fernandina :'(
Thanks for thinking of us, Ralay.
[PS: from a coupke weeks ago: I'm a fellow GIMPer from way back.]
I'm still truck driving until the first week of October, so I will be out of Harm's Way because the company wants to protect their equipment too. I actually passed through town on Monday and did my best to reduce windage and tie things down and button her up. It's pretty much up to Davy Jones and King Neptune at this point.
Good news is in the last eight or ten hours they've reduced forecasted winds by about 25 miles an hour for Fort Pierce as the storm shifts slightly Westward. That may be slightly better for us on the Treasure Coast and slightly worse for those on the Gulf Coast, but I think we're all going to get walloped.
I have some friends who volunteered to check on Emma as long as the storm's aftermath is not too bad. Otherwise I'm due to be in town for my so-called weekend around the 18th and I'll be able to see for myself. I'll give you a report.
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL112017
500 PM EDT Fri Sep 08 2017
Latest data from an Air Force Hurricane Hunter plane a few hours ago
indicate that Irma's intensity continues to fluctuate, and the
winds are estimated at 135 kt. The last minimum central pressure
was 925 mb. Another reconnaissance plane will check Irma soon.
The environment is favorable for Irma to maintain its category 4
status, and only unpredictable eyewall replacement cycles could
result in intensity fluctuations during the next 48 hours. The
interaction of the hurricane's circulation with Cuba will probably
not result in any relevant change in intensity. In summary, the NHC
forecast brings Irma near south Florida as a category 4 hurricane.
After landfall, interaction with land and an increase in wind shear
should induce gradual weakening.
Satellite images and radar fixes from Cuba indicate that Irma has
slowed down and is now moving toward the west or 280 degrees at
about 10 kt. The hurricane should continue on this track for the
next 12 hours to 24 hours, and this track will bring the core of
Irma very close to the north coast of Cuba. After that time, Irma
should reach the southwestern edge of the subtropical high and begin
to move toward the northwest and north-northwest toward the Florida
peninsula. The precise moment of this turn is still uncertain, and
that is why NHC emphasizes that nobody should focus on the exact
track of the center. This afternoon's NHC forecast was again
adjusted a little bit westward following the trend of the ECMWF
model and both the HFIP corrected consensus and the FSU
Superensemble. In fact, these 3 aids continued to be tightly packed.
Her encounter with Cuba seems to have diminished her speeds a bit, I wonder how people on the west coast might have prepaired differently had they known they were in the direct path?
Quote from: Lars on September 07, 2017, 05:44:30 PM
I will be leaving tomorrow afternoon westbound on the icw heading towards perdido bay from panama city. Do not trust this storm until it turns . I figure another 100 miles between us won't hurt.this is the first time I have ever moved for a storm. Went through Opal in Mobile back in 95 or 96.
As further confirmation of the value of following your gut.... Walton county is now under voluntary evacuation.... good move captain.
I look forward to hearing from Lars.... where he got to, and how he secured his vessel, weather he chose to ride it out aboard or headed home.... assuming he's not a live aboard. It looks to me like a great choice with the narrow and winding river at the head of the bay. Below is a description of the Perdido River. Emphasis on "deep and slow moving". The Sat view shows lots of small dead end channels, etc, where one could presumably tie off to trees ashore, and be pretty sheltered. What would seem a near perfect place for staying aboard in this kind of weather.
H.W.
The Perdido River is a 60-mile long river that begins at the confluence of Fletcher Creek and Perdido Creek, approximately 8 miles northwest of Atmore in Escambia County, Alabama. This river defines the boundary between Alabama and Florida along nearly its entire length on its winding east – southeast course to Perdido Bay on the Gulf of Mexico. The Perdido, or "lost," River was named by the Spanish who occupied its surrounding areas until 1813.
The Perdido is a typical blackwater river of the southeastern Coastal Plain. It is characterized by a sandy bottom and a deep, slow moving channel that flows through forested swamps and wetlands. Tannins (acidic, organic compounds) are released into the water by decaying vegetation from these forested areas, resulting in transparent, dark-stained "black" water that looks much like tea.
The Perdido River is considered to be the highest quality free-flowing blackwater river remaining in the southern Coastal Plain. Its corridor encompasses 120,000 acres of Alabama's largest and most ecologically significant blackwater watershed. Near the headwater area of Rabun, Alabama, acres of pitcher plant bogs and forested wetlands form the beginning of the Perdido River corridor. Other habitats within the corridor include slash pine flatwoods, upland longleaf pine savannahs, marsh wetlands, forested wetlands, and Atlantic white cedar swamps which are rare this far west in the Gulf Coastal Plain. These habitats are utilized by a diverse array of plants and animals including many rare and endangered species.
I was just informed by a friend..........and confirmed it on Wikipedia, that I have the dubious "honor" of sharing the name of 3 hurricanes and 3 tropical cyclonic storms in the Eastern Pacific. 1980,86,92,98, 2004 & 16........... '80, '98, and '04 were full blown hurricanes..... none did any direct damage, considerately staying well offshore, and dissipating off California, though the latter did cause flooding and significant rainfall in Baja and Arizona. The one in '98 began as a tropical wave in the Atlantic off the coast of Africa, and didn't turn into a hurricane until it had crossed the isthmus into the Pacific.
They seem to recycle names.......... I've had enough of that kind of "honor" for one lifetime I think ;-) I'm glad my name was not on the list for Atlantic hurricanes this year!!
H.W.
You know you've got good friends when, barely out from under curfew, they drive over to take a picture of your boat and send it to you; just because.
sv Emma still standing post-Irma. My tarp was torn off but it wasn't critical protection. I had reseated the cockpit but didn't screw it down -- in mid-project. The tarp was extra cover over the cocpit. I'll be there in 3 weeks, full time boat work fall/winter!!!!!
(https://2.bp.blogspot.com/-F5SmC0PvYLc/Wbh-e1uMDpI/AAAAAAAANs8/ytA4V-gGIOwn8vkeQaq4UuwvJshSwRgKgCLcBGAs/s320/5529-MMS-1505158996000-attachment1-IMG_20170911_1357365881-1.jpg)
Ha! Hotwired the image by dumping it on a fake page on the blog. Now you can see it w/o clicking thru!!
Glad your WS is still there. It's nice to have it on the hard while you're not around. Loss of just a tarp is a pretty good outcome.
I noticed you have an external bobstay fitting. I think I'd like that better. I'm religious about changing the zinc on ours, but I still wonder what kind of shape the glasses in part is in.
Emma is a 1972 W32. She is an early boat and also has the shop-built stainless steel pintles and gudgeons. I don't know the complete Legend of Emma. I bought her from a lawyer who claimed that he bought her because he always wanted a Bluewater boat like a Westsail. He claimed that his sailing club buddies were all agog about his bluewater project. What I've come to know about him subsequently makes me doubt much of his story.
He supposedly bought her from a young sailor, who is said to have sailed her around the Caribbean for 5 years or so with no engine. I did find a Costa Rican coin in a drawer. The lawyer told me that the young sailor lost his girlfriend, got hit by a car on his bicycle, then the boat was stolen and subsequently recovered. Supposedly that was some three strikes and he was out kind of a deal. I have a suspicion perhaps the lawyer got the boat for doing some legal work related to the accident or something but I don't really know.
Further the topsides are sloppily painted with a heavy paint, lots of brush marks, and though I haven't done any sanding yet, I haven't been able to locate a hull number or even the shadow of where it might be. Maybe whoever stole it ground the numbers off. My title is free & clear but has a "hull number" that is a standard Florida nomenclature for salvage or recovery situations. You'd think this "young sailor' would have had a copy of the title somewhere besides onboard. Maybe not. I did meet a "dock boy" kind of employee of the Coconut Grove Sailing Club who supposedly knew the young sailor and travelled with him some. I talked to him with and w/o the lawyer, so either he got tipped very well or the young sailor existed in some form.
It's a great mystery and kind of fun to speculate on the details. It'll all be in my book. :-)
Some of the Westsails we early enough they weren't required to have engraved hull numbers. Ours has a generic California hull number for homebuilt boats because it was a kit. Bud Taplin was able to tell me our Westsail hull number. He tries to keep track of all the boats. I suppose Mona is easy to track because she has her original name and is such an unusual Westsail. If you're curious, Bud might be able to tell you more. At the least, he'd probably like to know your contact info and the new name of your boat. I would love to talk to the builder of our boat. He has YouTube videos of her first sail from 1985, but I've never been able to get his contact info, assuming he's still around.
Ok, I'll stop derailing this thread with Westsail stuff now.
Well, yes. I deserve a good part of the Westsail blame. :-)
Back to your regularly scheduled program ...
I rode out the edge of the storm in my semi cab, no trailer. I was parked between a couple truck/trailers in Jacksonville at a truckstop. We were all fairly near, downwind, and sheltered by the highway embankment. I was rocked and rolled all night but never felt in danger. Frankly, I slept a lot. There wasn't anything else to do after the truckstop closed and then the power went out out. After that I was sent west and then south. I took a load to a Home Depot in Fort Lauderdale and felt a little like I was helping.
This afternoon I drove up to Savannah and was shocked!! Crossing into Georgia a sign said "No power, facilities or resources exits 1 - 26." The next sign listed 4 exits between. 26 and 49 that were "Closed to all motorists." Every exit ramp for 50 miles had a state trooper and a Nat'l Guard Humvee and most entrance ramps had a trooper. The whole coast was evacuated and witbout power.
This area is only 25 to 75 miles north of where I was during the storm! I can remember a big band of orange and red radar up there when I looked at my phone. Technically, I was between the eye and this area when the storm went by. That large band just happened to sweep above and miss Jax.
In the last two days, down I-75 and up I-95, there were many many trees that had fallen over onto the shoulder and the road. These were all chopped up by chainsaw and moved out of the way. Leaves and pine straw littered the highway in places. Today, from Statesboro south toward Waycross on US1 there was an incredible number of trees down. Some with large carpets of turf lifted by the roots.
Other than I-75 from Valdosta down to Ocala, I was no where near the path of the eye. All that described above was hit by the outer reaches of the storm.
We may have dodged the bullet of the main body of the storm here in SC when she went west, but in some weird sort of weather karma, we got plastered all the same. This was due to the circumstance that Irma was west, and there was a strong high to the NE, the result being near-hurricane force winds here for a period of several hours on the evening/night of Monday.
The owner of my marina implemented a policy which forced everyone to leave, a decision made early in the week when we were 10 days out from possible impact, but centerline in the cone of probability. Later, as she went west, he did not relent, and so some 200+ people and their boats had to bug out. I was watching the weather and forecasts closely, and right up to Monday we were forecast only to see some winds approaching 40-45 from the East. That's across the river, so no fetch, and they were to peak for only an hour or so, dropping back to the 20's before evening. Like a bunch of other boats, with that in mind I took my bevy and anchored them up against the windward shore of the river across from the marina, maybe 200 yards from the dock, Sunday midday. I had prepped each boat with 2 anchor/rode combinations, but set only one that day because of time constraints, planning to set the other Monday before arrival of storm winds.
Rowed out to the I36 that night, and just knew I couldn't sleep well with boats hanging on only one hook that hadn't been really properly set, so I paddled the dinghy over to the other two boats and set out the 2nd anchors, finishing after midnight and checking on things visually until about 3AM. That worked out good, because when I woke up at 6AM on Monday, it was already blowing in the mid to upper 20's, and rowing to the other boats would have been a major PITA. While I'd slept, a 45'ish trawler had drug through the pack, luckily apparently missing all other boats and rodes.
So then Monday morning the lying weather weasels start changing the forecast for the rest of the day, and my day and plans went to heck. Making this long story short, the winds did get up into the 40's by 2PM - but then, instead of receding, they built. And they didn't stop, they stayed. For 7 more hours, before starting to recede somewhat. Based on what I was seeing, I guesstimated Force 8 with gusts to F10, and my brother confirmed this via text, after he checked the weather data at the airport (they had 41mph sustained with gusts to 61, and are 2+ miles inland in a pine forest, usually 10mph or more slower than what we have on the water).
On the I36, I had out as a primary a 25# CQR with 15' or so of chain on 1/2" 3 strand on a 10/1 scope approx, and a 33# Bruce with similar chain and rode on short scope as protection against dragging - but the chain/rope splice was rusty and looking dodgy, so thus the backup status of the larger hook (one of this weeks projects...). In those gusts that nylon got as tight and hard as rebar, and I went on deck 1-2 every hour and let out 6" or so to reduce chafing at the roller. I could do nothing for Katie or Sundance, but like the I36, the night before had worked to set well the anchors I'd put out for their primaries and they had lots of scope, and Thankfully neither budged throughout the storm.
Besides the trawler. 2 other boats did drag. One went 100 yards or so and stopped, staying there for the rest of the storm. The other was a small, 25' or so light boat, using an 'anchor' its owner had made. He is a welder, and had created a 150# "anchor" of high-carbon steel, a block of solid metal with protrusions, but the wind was so strong it as might well have been made of plywood. He only dragged about 100 ft the first time, the sat for a spell before moving another 50' to the edge of the deep channel. Third time was the charm, and off he went, heading for the USCG dock. I hailed them to let them know there was nobody on board, and man did he wind up lucking out. His boat drug to a stop less than 10' from contacting the concrete pier, and stayed off of it until we towed her away Tuesday morning. Paul is officially the Luckiest man in Georgetown. :)
My boats all made it through without dragging or any other incidents, but it sure was a lot more weather than I'd reckoned on having, stressful and tiring. I did learn a good bit, too. And from now on - it's a hurricane hole for me regardless of what the weather guy says.
So glad you and your fleet made it through safely! What commentary might the crew dog offer on the whole situation? (Or did he jack the van and drive himself to higher ground?)
Very happy that all your hooks held. When it was clear that the wind was going to come from a relatively small angular range, moving to the windward shore was an obvious good choice, and anchoring in relatively shallow water gave you loads of scope with modest actual rode out. A gradual build of the wind set the anchors well. Very fine choices that you made.
If the centerline had tracked over your marina, properly anchoring the fleet would have been much more challenging. Good dry land is a killer for hurricanes once they are well clear of the coastal areas. Highs to the north of a hurricane will intensify the winds out of the east as the storm passes.
I am a little surprised that you did not set the second anchors a similar distance out, and at an angle to the side, to stop the boats from sailing back and forth, which increases anchor load by exposing the side of the b0oat to the wind. Also, the spread anchors share the load, and neither has the maximum at any time. This makes more comfortable sleeping when cruising, and even more so when riding out a storm.
The marina should have faired well in this storm.
Norman
Glad to hear you came through it Kurt. The same thing happened to us on our wooden boat in Norfolk. A hurricane passed WELL to the south at the same time a cold front approached. Suddenly the marine forecast was for 55kts and rising. We stayed on the boat for 3 days before it calmed down. Each forecast was worse than the next. We had hurricane force wind during the worst nights. The town flooded and a container ship wound up on the beach. Folks were making mayday calls from the anchorage at Hospital Point (We were in the Lafayette). It was wild!
We weren't even close to the hurricane. There was just a huge pressure differential between the front and the low. Took a heck of a lot of blowing to even things out. We were new cruisers and it had never occurred to me that hurricane force cold fronts were a thing. I wore my life jacket the whole time. I had no idea what to expect now that the weather had gone crazy. We did the same as you, sneaking out to freshen the nip on the anchor rode regularly.
As for the multiple anchor debate, I've heard both sides. I think it would depend a lot on where you boat and what kind of current you have. A tidal current would make a real mess of multiple rodes in short order. Up here, we're constantly twirling around and wrapping our snubber and chain around one another. They'll chafe without being untwisted and there's no way to sort them without undoing one end of the snubber. We have an anchor on both sides of our bowsprit but never use them at the same time for this reason. I don't want to wind up with two rodes I can't pull in or let out.
We had multiple anchors on multiple rodes in Norfolk. We didn't drag, but we also swung like mad. Maybe we drug both anchors into a line or maybe boats just get good at sailing with bare poles once the wind gets that high.
I suppose we might get a chance to test new storm techniques if Jose comes up here.
Two points, Ralay
First, my thoughts on two anchors out at 30 or so degrees were specific to Kurts solid expectation of a reliable specific wind direction. Tides and a lesser wind would be entirely different logic.
Second, I missed being in Norfolk when you were there, by someone else's decision. The owner of the 30 foot Beneteau that I crewed on decided not to compete! Half a dozen other skippers in our fleet did go, and just as you did, had an unforgettable adventure! If I remember correctly, none of them sustained enough damage to prevent returning home, but several sails were shredded, and a mast or two wrecked hitting adjacent boats. If we had been there, life would have been tough, as he only carried his racing anchor, a small danforth, and a modest length of rode, an I doubt that it would have held in the wind that occurred That weekend. He and I would have been on the boat, with possibly one additional crew member. Even without having been there, the stories of my friends who were there still give me the Willies just thinking about those conditions.
Norman
Quote from: ralay on September 15, 2017, 04:56:33 PM
I suppose we might get a chance to test new storm techniques if Jose comes up here.
Just saw the weather. Looks like you'll get the chance
Sure, Norman. I was expanding on the topic. We're up here in Portland watching Jose and thinking about ground tackle so you stimulated my thoughts.
Lucky move skipping out on that trip. We were lucky to have squeezed into such a tiny creek before we knew what was coming.
I just looked at the weather too, but I'm not convinced we'll get much. The max wind forecast at 120H is 50kts and the uncertainty of the position of the center is still hundreds of miles. Also, for every bit that it turns from the midline of its current track near the edge of the Gulf Stream, towards Maine, the water temp drops off precipitously. A storm that's 50kts with one foot in the Gulf Stream is probably going to be even less if it has to hit Massachusetts and cross the Gulf of Maine. We're sitting in 61 degree water.
It's not unusual to get 30-40kt wind during cold fronts, so I doubt we'll do anything special unless it's forecast to be much higher. Our every day anchor is a 55lb Delta on 300' of chain, though we also have a few more on deck and a dissembled Fortress storm anchor. So far our plan is to do what we'd do for a strong cold front - go to a good mud hole, put out a big anchor, lots of chain, and a long snubber, watch Star Trek.
Here is the NOAA projection map........ doesn't look too bad
We came down to the free moorings in the Saco River. Portland is a lovely place but wide open to the NE. We were hoping Jose would be past by Thursday, but it looks like it might be going for another loop. Go home, hurricane, you are drunk!
For those of us who only get the numbers on wind speed etc. but can't really relate to it.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-bmJWWmX8SY (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-bmJWWmX8SY)
It would be nice to hear how Lars made out in Perdido bay......................
H.W.