That pretty much sums it up...
Who else is on the eastern seaboard N of Florida? We're most likely to take a direct hit here as of now, but there's always hope it'll veer or track away from coming right over us at least.
I'm in Charleston......... ;D
Being that I'm just up the coast here in Georgetown, let's hope we're both lucky and it goes at least 150 miles N of you... ;D
A little graphic I made to compare the Fri and Sat 11AST NHC map. Friday is the blue line. Wouldn't mind seeing that red line keep going up, up, up, up, up...
Hard to say this far out but somebody is going to get whacked for sure as u.s. landfall is getting to be more of a certainty. Good luck to everyone
The real hope is that she does not intensify, copying Gordon.
With a coastal predicted arrival date of Wednesday, flights on the East coast will be a mess for a day or three if she is in the higher categories, and I am flying then.
Kurt, are you planning to stay aboard again?
Norman
watching this thing. hopeing everone stays safe. lots if my friends in the bullseye.
Stay safe up there, everyone.
Here on Rappanock River, 3 miles up from the Bay. Hoping that thing makes a 90 degree turn and moves out to sea. At the moment we would seem ok other than problems caused by high (for us) surf - destroying docks, piers, and filling channels. Not life threatening, but expensive. Really don't know what does the most damage, a brush with a Hurricane or the nor'easter's rumbling up the coast.
All you folks down south stay safe, the beast is coming.
"Oh Lord, thy sea is great, and my boat is so small."
Looks like y'all are going to have a rough patch going forward. Remember, boats can be replaced. You can't!
There's a lot you can do to prepare for the storm, but once it arrives, theres not much you can do safely. Take care and be safe!
When are they guessing landfall?
Here's the latest, which puts me in relatively mild conditions on the far SW edge of things.
Thanks for all the good wishes, & keep it up, they seem to be working. ;D
Looks like our friends near Oriental and New Bern are going to have a rough time. Capt. Smollett et al, we are thinking of you.
Have also been thinking about you all and the fleet, Kurt, especially when the track line seemed to go directly over you earlier, with concerns following the track toward John and his family, as well.
Lots of notice so I hope everyone is as prepared as possible and stays safe!
Hopefully any damage will be minimal. Take care of yourselves!!
Please everyone do be safe.... this looks like a serious one.
Here in Norfolk, boat was hauled yesterday. Going tomorrow morning to remove all the sails and canvas. Hoping for miracle and Florence turns away....not likely.
Stay safe everyone in harms way
Florence is a schizo.
Saw a funny: "Being in the path of a hurricane is like being stalked by a turtle."
A schizo turtle, with fangs, and a knife...
Just saw the latest forecast.
I'll be praying for everyone down in the Carolinas.
Last fall we had one member who took off to the Panhandle to avoid Irma.... I don't recall him ever describing the experience or outcome. Most people in the path of Florence probably have nowhere to move their boats to safety within the time frame available, as they will generally have more important assets, not to mention it would seem natural that locations nearby within sailing range of several days probably fill up rapidly.
I've often wondered about sailing southeastward far enough out from the core that while the prevailing winds are still influenced by the hurricane as far as direction and consistency, you are still using the winds generated by the hurricane to avoid being in it's path..... How far out would you have to be to avoid excessive winds and excessively confused seas. How far out from the core are the winds influenced by the hurricane rather than an adjacent system? If you know the storm in northwest of you, it seems that wind speed and direction should tell you pretty much that you are in the right quadrant and at a "safe" distance. It seems that there should be a viable strategy for avoidance by sailing offshore. Of course this time of year they are being generated one right behind the next it seems. Passing across the actual track hundreds of miles behind a major storm like Florence to head to Maine or Newfoundland, etc, you would probably be out of the zone of useful wind generated by the storm long before being out of the turbulent seas it left behind.
Just wondered if there is a useful strategy and if anybody uses it. Live aboards are the most vulnerable it would seem, as most live aboards are shore dependent in numerous ways, and cannot just up anchor and sail to safety. If you are a true transient, you probably headed out a long time ago and are in Europe or the EU, Norway, etc, touring and exploring until heading for the Canaries in a few months......
H.W.
H.W.
Have been hearing reports mentioning New Bern in news on NPR, and just saw this article about a storm surge there...
https://www.cnn.com/2018/09/14/us/hurricane-florence-new-bern-north-carolina/index.html
Hoping that John and his family are all right.
Agreed. We lived in New Bern for a while and I hate to think of it being underwater.
Harbor cam shot of Oriental, down stream from New Bern, yesterday evening.. This is the town dock that's the tips of the pilings you can see. There is a road there too !!
I've stayed there and I THINK W00dy and Ralay had Mona there once also
https://towndock.net/harborcam
My ole sailing friends Annie and Neville live there. That blue building on the left is a coffee shop I've been in. Crazy! No word from them since Thursday.
Any work from John S?
So far so good here. Got the I36 into a slip around in town where its protected, Ariel and A30 at anchor and still afloat this AM, might get out there maybe late today but probably tomorrow. Winds today forecast to get into the 40's from the S, which is right up the Bay, a 6 mile fetch or so. Hoping that doesn't happen, of course.
Sent a text to JR, have not yet heard back from him.
Just got a text from John as I wrote the above. :) They are OK, but have lost power since Thursday at 6PM. He says Irene was worse with regard to the winds, but that the water and flooding are much worse now with Florence. Says to tell everyone Hello and appreciates the thoughts.
Good to hear from you and John. :o Keep your head down Hope all anchors hold.
Thanks for the update, so glad to hear you are both ok!
I saw some video, looks like Newborn Grand was doing well (one power boat seems to have found its way ashore)... Bridgeport not so much, many boats sunk again (like Irene)...
Quote from: CapnK on September 15, 2018, 10:40:19 AM
So far so good here.
That is good news, and about John, too. :)
Hope all the boats are OK Kurt!
Glad YOU are ok!
Hope Capt S is ok too....
Still no word from my friends in Orietal.
Smollett still without power, still blowing 20+ here, forecast to die to low teens overnight (sooner the better!). Boats still floating and no dragging, docks still in place - but 8 more hours of hard wind & bigger gusts on that ~6 mile fetch, so not out of the woods yet.
Craig - Doc told me Dennis stayed at marina and tended his and her boats and they both came out with minimal or no damage.
I hate Florence, ready for this time period to be *over*...
Seriously thinking about diving into a bottle or 12 of grog for the rest of it.
found this on FB supposedly in Oriental I am assuming from Florence
(http://sailfar.net/gallery/albums/userpics/10375/41934082_10217315435417561_1707756211811647488_n.jpg)
Good to hear from you, hang in there
S/V "Rabid Rabbit"...maybe just hopped up there...? ;)
On the bright side, sure is convenient for a bottom job.
Hope no one was hurt.
Water sure has power!
Quote from: Frank on September 16, 2018, 04:33:58 PM
On the bright side, sure is convenient for a bottom job.
Yes indeed, Frank. Yet again, we see the advantage of a full keel...sure would be a hard maneuver to pull off with a deep fin keel...
Quote from: Frank on September 16, 2018, 04:33:58 PM
Hope no one was hurt.
Yes.
What are the odds of that happening? Whoverer owned that boat is pretty lucky. Hope everyone else remains safe!
Quick summary - lots of work to do yet.
All boats survived, including dinghies, as did contents of dock boxes (tools, resin, etc...).
A-30 leaked had about 5" of water over the sole, no damage to engine, lost a 15kg SST Danforth style anchor and down to 2 strands on the other rode of 7/16" with a Fortress FX-23 (yes, mongo) on it.
Katie appears fine, haven't had a chance to go inside her yet, sure it looks like a tornado was in there though.
Alpa windlass got ripped out of foredeck - bad core - and she and a Watkins 25 battled overnight and into this morning until after an hour or so I was able to get them apart and staying that way (let me tell you how my marina sucks sometime... no help at all...), with the W25 coming out the poorer as you could guess. Mangled pulpit, snapped off 'sprit, lotta scars. Scars and broken stanchions on the Alpa.
All this bad stuff happened *after* the storm had gone by - a vicious backside rainband.
Going to go pull the I36 out of the borrowed slip right now. Will do a detailed wrap up and debrief later.
Appreciate your quick summary. Great to hear that all your boats survived.
Quote from: CapnK on September 17, 2018, 01:28:48 PM
All this bad stuff happened *after* the storm had gone by - a vicious backside rainband.
Unusual the way
Florence just stalled there for days working its way slowly SW toward you, and only now seems to be moving on to the NW. Similar to the way
Harvey parked itself over Houston and dumped heavy rain for days a year ago.
Good luck with your post-storm work, Kurt. Grog to ya!
Thanks for the update. Glad to hear cuz you know it coulda been a lot worse. Now you will be once again reminded of the exponential cost of multiple oats. 🤪
I finally got a reply from my old sailing friends in Orietal.
They are fine, minimal damage and were totally impressed and feeling blessed by the sense of community and helpfulness that was demonstrated throughout, saying it was amazing how the storm drew everyone together with a shared commitment to make it through.
Quote from: Tim on September 16, 2018, 12:26:20 PM
found this on FB supposedly in Oriental I am assuming from Florence
(http://sailfar.net/gallery/albums/userpics/10375/41934082_10217315435417561_1707756211811647488_n.jpg)
Tim, and others,
In the past week, I've seen that and a lot worse. Thought I'd drop by and give a bit of update straight from "ground zero."
(1) First,
Gaelic Sea made it through the storm just fine in her "temporary" (7 years now!) berth at Hurricane Boat Yard. Last I was down to check on her, she was at the end of the line nearest to the water (where the pull the boats with the lift), but she's since been put on a small trailer and moved up to the "upper" end of the yard.
They only had three boats in the yard float free. That's pretty awesome considering the yard is RIGHT on the Bay River and had to have had a surge comparable to ours.
(2) In several places around town, boats are a mess. We've seen sunk sailboats, boats in the marshes, bows of boats sticking up out of the water, boats piled on top of other boats, etc. There's one in Fairfield Harbor (a retirement community surrounded on two sides by tributaries of the Neuse River) with a piling through the hull.
In short, there's a LOT of boat damage. Tidewater Marine, just up the Trent River from town looks to have been wiped out (boats tossed around like pick-up sticks), and Bridgepoint, where we used to live, looks to be condemned again with severe dock damage, such boats, etc.
A friend of mine that has a boat at New Bern Grand Marina right across the river from Bridgepoint had no damage except for some torn canvas.
(3) The damage to the community was very localized, but make no mistake where the damage occurred, it is
bad. We got out to help folks starting last week and got into some of the harder hit areas. Just yesterday we got our first looks at some of the areas near downtown. Some folks lost EVERYTHING, and the rebuilding will be going six months if not longer.
(4) As Kurt mentioned, I think Irene brought us much stronger winds, but the surge + subsequent rain and secondary flood damage this time was tremendous.
One family we know that lives on the Trent River did not see the water reach their house in 1999's Floyd (one of the more notorious flooding events here) or 2016's Matthew, but the bottom floor of their split level flooded in Florence.
That's weird thing, to me at least: the Trent side of the watershed was worse this time than either Floyd or Matthew. The Neuse flood gauge in Kinston crested about 2 ft lower than both Floyd and Matthew. It just shows how localized the rainfall was and that parts of the watershed got far more than others. Some areas got more damaged by the surge and others moreso by the rain.
So, sailfar friends, please keep this community in your thoughts and prayers. The crew of
Gaelic Sea were quite lucky and believe me, we are humbled by that outcome. Many here lost their homes and all possessions; a few lost their lives. Many of the harder hit areas are either poor neighborhoods or retirement communities with high population of the elderly.