Hurricane forecast changes...

[CapnK]

This might be of interest to a fairly large contingent of sailFar'ers...

From Jeff Masters Wunderground.com weather blog:

El Ni?o rapidly weakened during late April and early May, with sea surface temperatures over the tropical Eastern Pacific in the area 5?N - 5?S, 120?W - 170?W, also called the "Ni?a 3.4 region", falling a significant 0.65?C in just one month. Temperatures in the region are now in the "neutral" range, just 0.18?C above average, and well below the 0.5?C threshold to be considered an El Ni?o, according to the Australian Bureau of Meteorology. The speed of the collapse of El Ni?o makes it likely that a La Ni?a event is on its way this summer. This is what happened during the last strong El Ni?o event, in 1998--El Ni?o collapsed dramatically in May, and a strong La Ni?a event developed by hurricane season. Six of the sixteen El Ni?o models (updated as of April 15) are predicting La Ni?a conditions for hurricane season, and I expect more models will jump on the La Ni?a bandwagon when the May data updates later this week. The demise of El Ni?o, coupled with sea surface temperatures in the tropical Atlantic that are currently at record levels, have prompted two major hurricane forecasting groups (tropicalstormrisk.com and Colorado State University) to predict a significantly above average 2010 Atlantic hurricane season. Over the full 160-year period we have records of Atlantic hurricanes, La Ni?a years have typically had more hurricanes, and more strong hurricanes, compared to neutral years. However, since 1995, there hasn't been any difference between neutral and La Ni?a years in terms of hurricane activity. La Ni?a conditions typically cause cool and wet conditions over the Caribbean in summer, but do not have much of an impact on U.S. temperatures or precipitation.

Disclaimer: I haven't yet verified this through other sources, but expect that this is by-and-large true to the facts.

Yuck.  :P

[newt]

So  Capt. what is this going to do with our oil slick?

[Mario G]

LOL now that I have a boat at the coast , I guess I didn't put much thought into the hurrican problems...duh feeling like homer simpson  I've been living 200 m inland and have seen what they can do here.  I know the boat can take a beating and I hope to have her in a slip soon.   I guess I know why Shaken Knot Stir'd had so many docking clets.    someone tell me the stress level drops after you have done this awhile...lol

I don't see us advoided being effected by the oil spill, I was thinking what about ways of helping including traveling to the area?

[Bubba the Pirate]

Mario - I've been thinking of trying to help.  I don't know with what but I am nearly without tether now already.  However, the boat is not yet ready.  If you hear of some opportunities to volunteer, please pass them along. 

Thanks,
Todd