Sailing aboard s/v "Emerald Tide"

[s/v Faith]

Hope to head se to cross the stream some time Friday.  Will get UW in the am, and hopefully the next stop will be in Marsh Harbour....

 Headed to the Virgin Islands from there.

After sharing the pictures from my Virgin Islands charter back in May, it was decided that Emerald Tide was going too.  ;D

There are naysayers, but with her new re-power, electronics, and sails she is all dressed up so she ought to have somewhere to go!  The owner is going along for part of the trip and will fly down with some family once down there.  It ought to be an amazing trip.

Yes, Emerald Tide is not exactly "sailfar" sized, but she has many simple systems and is sailed by a simple minded captain so there is that. :)

[CapnK]

A canned of spots message... wha...? ;)

Sure hate it for you, Craig - I mean having to go to the islands and all... But I guess you'll manage. ;D Hope yer Stream crossing goes quick and easy! And that you maybe even get some downhill 'tween here and the VI.

8)

[s/v Faith]

underway 0950 this. morning following wind, beautiful day

[Tim]

Trying not to be jealous on this day of Gratitude.

Fair Winds!

[Captain Smollett]

Okay, all you guys playing the VIRTUAL ocean sailing game...time to play more for real.

Feeling a bit, uh, "pressured" here.

Here's the Scenario:

Craig called me yesterday as he was clearing Beaufort Inlet to get my read on the wx as he headed out.  His original plan was to head SE, cross the stream, turn south and run for the islands.  His concern was a forecast for 10-15 knots from one source, a Small Craft Advisory from another.

I was enroute somewhere and pulled off the road.  Told him I'd look up what I could on my phone and call him back..hopefully before he lost cell signal.

What I saw:

Checking several sites, including NOAA's Marina Offshore and Coastal products and Passageweather.com (gribs forecast in 3 hour interval) AND the Synoptic Surface Analysis graphic broadcast as the North Atlantic radio fax a couple of hours earlier, I saw two things that alerted me and saw why he was getting conflicting information.

(1) Huge Low sitting just S of Bermuda...gale force extending out several hundred miles.  Though I knew this was not going to effect him DIRECTLY...it's reach was into the area he was planning to cross the stream.

Looked like 15-20 knots from the N right about where he'd cross.

(2) Another system was filling in along the coast (seen on wx maps later, see below, as that cold front that moved across the SE US last night), and that could potentially bring him 20-25 knots, initially from the W then clocking N as the front passed...again right over the stream.

I called him back and told him what I saw.  Here's what we discussed:

(1) Heading back in and taking the ditch.

(2) Not crossing the stream directly, but staying in the countercurrent inshore of the stream, and heading just far enough out to avoid Frying Pan.  He had a couple of "bail-out" inlets as options..,Masonboro, Cape Fear, Georgetown.

(3) He said he'd play by ear as conditions warrant sticking his nose in the stream to see what's what and if making a break for crossing looked like a good idea.

Here's the "problem."  When I looked before calling him back, and I SWEAR this is what I saw...the secondary systems boiling off that cold front were not to hit until TODAY in the afternoon.  I thought he'd have enough southing by then to basically be around it, maybe catching the the edge but nothing out of the ordinary.

Everything I saw yesterday at 14:00 local pointed me (and him via discussion) to making SOUTH, get away from the crud, THEN crossing.  He looked REALLY good, 10-15 knots from the W through the night if he stayed "inside."

Alas, when I looked last night around 21:00, what I saw was COMPLETELY different.  I do not know if the forecast changed in those seven hours or if I completely misread the maps, graphics and timestamps.  I felt a little sick.

The cold front was going to be churning up the wind, 20-25, right on time of where he was going to be.  The poop was going be overnight, not today after a the first night as sea being "restful." 

I added to my arsenal of data the actual data from wx buoys along the coast.  The most informative, I think, has been the one along Frying Pan shoals, pretty much within a few miles of his last SPOT message a few minutes ago before I started typing this.

That buoy was reporting (and has pretty much overnight) 20 ish knots susttained, gusts in the 25 knot range for the most part, WNW, seas about 6 feet.

All in all, it does not sound TOO bad, and certainly nothing out of Craig's experience.

But, looking at the situation in hindsight, I'm wondering if (a) I misread then data and thus steered him wrong, and (b) if he would not have been better with his original plan.  Wondering if he's been cussing me all night!

Had he crossed earlier then headed south, he MAY have had lighter winds but definitely bigger seas last night.  NOAA Offshore was predicted up to 11 footers in the eastern part of the zone (roughly where he'd be now had he headed more SE yesterday before turning south).

All in all...here's my conclusion:

Being closer to the shore has provided SOME shelter from wind-waves...there's still a pretty good swell from the E from that gale way offshore.

Anyway...just wanted to 'vent' more than anything.

Final remarks:

SPOT is incredible asset.  I was able to not only see where he was, but by assuming he'd hold course, project where he'd be at different forecast times. 

This is INCREDIBLY complicated with a moving boat and moving weather systems like that cold front (and it's effects).  It makes me wonder just how much effort most people put into their weather routing, and emphasizes in my mind why so many are content to simply run the ditch.

Passageweather.com.  I'll probably never use it again.  Those gribs make purty pictures, but their practical utility is woefully inadequate (in my opinion).  They do NOT show frontal systems, and in this case that was a CRITICAL piece of information.  Yes, it was not the only product I used, but I confess that I did place a little too much emphasis on those cute little wind barbs that I could step in 3 hour increments (for up to a week..though I looked for 24 hours).

Craig has the ability to send me an email from offshore, and said he would if he felt he needed a wx update.  I have not received one, so I am taking that as "no news is good news."  The SPOT updates saying "here I am" along with no "immediate" request for wx info are positive signs...


And hoping I'm being more of a worry wart than anything else.   ;) ;D

Punchline...even here in the warmth of my bedroom, it's a bit more "hectic" than "Virtual Sailing" when real people are on the live end of the rope.

Carry on, brethren.  And, as a parting shot...I more than welcome any and all input.

--John

[CapnK]

Well, if Spot is accurate, he's been making 10+ kts for the last 5.5 hours (pos 17-18), in the usual 'middle of the Stream' area for offshore of here,& is headed south - that sounds pretty durn good to me! Not like there is a bunch of bad seas to bash through, with that pace & his waterline...

[Captain Smollett]

He is w of the stream not in it. Looked at the actual stream position data last night, so not going by an average.

He was shooting for a counter eddy, and looks like he found it.

Data from the fps buoy all night has showed 5-6 footers on average...not bad at all.

Edit: Just looked at most recent buoy reading...looks like it might be backing off a little bit.  Last hour has had nearly all readings less than 20 and one in the 16's.  Seems like 17-ish on 'average' for sustained speeds right now at the outer edge of FPS, which is within just a few miles of his last SPOT Pos.

[Tim]

My two cents; (and worth every penny of it ;))

Reading the dynamics (speed at which they are moving) of multiple systems in an area is a poop shoot much of the time.

My own experience reading weather data of an involved and evolving situation, has me often putting the ideal (in my opinion) scenario at the the top of the list whether it is warranted or not.

This not in any way saying it is not extremely important to prepare with all the best data and methodology, rather that one still has to accept that it may never  always be the right plan.

[Captain Smollett]

My two cents; (and worth every penny of it ;))

Reading the dynamics (speed at which they are moving) of multiple systems in an area is a poop shoot much of the time.

My own experience reading weather data of an involved and evolving situation, has me often putting the ideal (in my opinion) scenario at the the top of the list whether it is warranted or not.

This not in any way saying it is not extremely important to prepare with all the best data and methodology, rather that one still has to accept that it may never  always be the right plan.

I understand that, and agree 100%.  I'm not trying to play one of those "But NOAA said it'd be RIGHT HERE" games.

My concern, such as it is, is that I MISREAD the data that WAS there.  That all the indicators, graphics, maps, purty pictures and text was right, and I screwed up big time.

Now, screwing up bigtime is fine if it's just an exercise in a lab or for gee wiz.  It is completely unacceptable, to me, in "the real world."

Hindsight and looking backwards is next to useless.  It does serve one purpose...to learn from mistakes when they happen.  Perhaps the learning here is for Craig never to ask me for wx info again.  At this point, I believe that would be fully justified.

Whatever the cause, I was wrong by more than acceptable, reasonable error in a few hour "forecast" or interpretation of forecast data projecting merely 12 hours or so.

Geez, a school child looking at the clouds could have done better...

[Captain Smollett]

Update:

WX data from the FPS buoy (which is now clearly behind him, to the north of him, and the worst of the wx is north as well) shows a distinct drop-off in wind-speed over the last hour.  15-16 knots average sustained speeds now.

So, he had roughly 9 hours of 20-ish knots, but should be past the worst of it and in improving weather now.  Again, nothing critical, so I'm not trying to make a mtn out of a molehill, or breakers out of catspaws.   ;)

I would look for him to dart E sometime soon as he makes his crossing.  We shall see.

(You guys have to understand that I post analyze EVERYTHING to at least this degree....it comes from a combined scientific and forensics/investigations background, plus a healthy degree of personality disorder, too, I imagine).

[CapnK]

Looks like someone is going to be making a landfall in the Bahamas pretty soon...

[s/v Faith]

You guys really are the greatest.   ;D

  John thank you so much your
advice was spot on. 

  I cleared in at walkers cay yesterday evening, after a very quick offshore passage....  Mostly sailed...  Was a good call to avoid the stream at the onset.

  Listened to a boat on cruisers net who was in 15' seas with wind driven cross waves...   He was 160 miles se of hattaras... About where i might have been.

  I did ride the eddies, and had some great SOG numbers....   The ride was good (Pearson 424), glad to be on an old school boat (heavy with thick fiberglass)...  Had a nice run into the Bahamas even got cleared in after hours w no problems.

  Had a brief grounding today.... Apparen'y the charts from 2007 are no longer accurate...  Great Bahamians helped me out

  Dropping crew at marsh harbour, picking up more in Georgetown then off to the VI's.

Thanks to all...  You guys are the best.

[Tim]

See John, in the vernacular "No Worries!" ;D

[s/v Faith]

Cleared into walker cay, got fuel (and a rat apparently!) at grand cay...

South to Allen's-Pensacola, then Manjack...  Brief stop at green turtle then across the wale with a stiff ne wind!

Matt Lowes cay, then Marsh Harbour for a crew change...  Was to head out to sea bound either to Georgetown or Nassau but once again plagued by wx data.

Bahamas meteorology was calling for 20-25 k which is a bit much on the bank....   Got caught in a squall at the fuel dock in. Marsh harbour so I filled up and decided to heed the forecast and stay put....  An hour later it was clear so I headed over to hopetown, better to get some miles then none!

Will check in am, either head down to. Little Harbour and out or maybe till loo cut....

Wind will help me decide to stop next at Eleuthera or Nassau.....   Then on to. Georgetown and likely streight in to the BVI's...  We will see.

[s/v Faith]

anchor dowm in georgtown.  amazed to find less then 40 boats here...  not even an active cruisers net.  there are not many folks out cruising this winter.

[s/v Faith]

off of pr.  just north of the mona passage... close hauled at seven knots.... yahoo!

hope all is well, hope to be in the VIs tomorrow.

[CapnK]

Sweeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeettttttttttt....  8)

Jeallllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllloooooouuusss...  ;D

[Frank]

You be cruising!!!      Have fun

[s/v Faith]

full moon party at trellis bay.  woke with sore muscles and singed hair....  good times.

[s/v Faith]

Ok, backing up now and posting some more detail.

Trip from New Bern through the Abacos.

Depart New Bern Grand marina, day before Thanksgiving.

Sail to Beaufort, out inlet and south off shore to Walker Cay in the Bahamas.

Grand Cay for fuel (and to pick up rat), off to Allen's-Pensacola, Manjack, Guana and Marsh Harbour.

Crew change, and down to Hope Town.  South for Tiloo cut, then off shore with the next stop being Georgetown Exumas.