Understanding rogue waves.

[s/v Faith]

I just came across this article, and thought it was interesting.

Ship in Bottle, Meet Rogue Wave in Tub

What I take from this is that the Peregrine solution might allow localized prediction of rogue waves.

The article does not say but says;

That slight modulation triggers the growth of a rogue wave that zips down the tank at half the speed of the underlying sine wave and grows to three times the sine wave's height, exactly as predicted by the Peregrine solution.

So, imagine a given force wind was moving over the surface of the water for a given time.. if you could identify a local wind event that might cause the modulation (such as a micro-burst type event... a frontal passage within the passage?) it might be possible to predict the likelihood of a rogue wave...

... What do the Captain Smolletts of this board say>?  ;D

[Captain Smollett]

... What do the Captain Smolletts of this board say>?  ;D

Don't know about the other ones (  :o  ), but THIS one says, "PHYSICS IS COOL!"

I love it when theory (math) and experiment 'agree.'

Too bad we have this:

One criticism is that the solution is too simple in that, strictly speaking, it applies only when waves with a narrow range of frequencies are present.

Okay, so let's get this straight.  30 years ago, some guys solved an equation that predicts rougues.  Now, some guys do the experiment and find the behavior of these rogues MATCHES that predicted by the math.

And, some numbnuts has to say, "but wait, it's NOT real...it's only a LAB experiment that is DIFFERENT from the REAL ocean."

Sometimes, that's the right response.  This is not one of those.  I sadly fear, however, that this sort of 'criticism' is nothing more than Pavlovian dogma uttered by someone too lazy to actually think through the math and give a proper analysis of whether this result is meaningful or not.

Well, you DID ask...   ;D

Anyway, cool stuff.  Rouge waves are scary and costly.  They are partly scary because they are generally unpredictable.  If this is even just a first baby step to even GUESSING when/where they might occur - good stuff.

Bang on, brothers.

[s/v Faith]

I figureded that your reaction might be along those lines.  ;)

Here is what I see.

The advent of low power (fixed array, variable aperture) radar is really going to be a good deal for the Small Boat Sailor.

(yea, ok... hardly KISS).. BUT.

Imagine a radar array that was integrated into your anchor light (yes, pretty much that small) that draws about the current of your VHF radio.... it could monitor wave formation and using the patterns predicted by this model give you a bit of notice before the rogue wave struck...

... seems far fetched, but the technology is out there... and if this model is right so might the math.  (The math is pretty much there for star-trek transporters, but there is no way to use it.. .yet).  ;D

[Captain Smollett]

Maybe you would not even have to go with radar...why not use the boat's motion (accelerometers) and analyze the wave forms...get pretty much the same info?

Yeah, you'd have to calibrate for each boat, and maybe fuzzify the math a little bit to account for cruising trim (vs trim at calibration), etc.

I mean, *IF* the wave train ahead of the rogue contains info that the rogue is coming...  (I have not looked at the math in detail, but from that brief article, it looks like this might be the case).