weather

[jotruk]

I hope everyone on the east coast is out of the way of hurricane Irene. Looks like it could get nasty there. Keep us up to date on how it goes.

[Captain Smollett]

Looks to be strong-ish TS conditions in the forecast for us, 40 knots with gusts in the low 50's.





Luckily this year, with last year's experience with Earl, I am insulating myself from the dockside hysteria.  That poop gets old.

Our thoughts and prayers go to all along the coast...keep 'em battened down.

[CharlieJ]

Tehani is tucked up a little creek, on a private dock with 75 feet of fetch east,  north and west. Got atleast 8 pilings to tie to and no other boats to worry about.

The creek is up a bay, then up a river. A better spot could not be found, other than maybe on the Gulf coast ;D

[Tim]

Good to hear!

[Frank]

The "eye" would be passing over Manjack from about 5pm to now. Not sure what things will look like tomorrow....but I'm betting there will be big changes.

[Captain Smollett]

An update from my AO:

As of the 8 am discussion today, we were still looking good.  I was planning to stay put barring a mandatory order from the marina (which in the past they have not given unless things were going to get VERY bad).

Alas, everything changed with the mid-day updates.  We are now in the cross hairs.

The NHC forecast tracks seem to show landfall somewhere on the Banks between Cape Lookout and Hatteras.  That's close enough for my taste, but everything has been shifting back westward all day (and the discussions now say they are drawing the official along the EASTERN edge of the models).

Um, enter the second piece of the puzzle.  A friend from MCAS Cherry Point called today and told me all the military wx guys are calling for landfall between Emerald Isle and Morehead City...notable western of the NHC track and puts us that much closer to the eye.

I know quite a few of the military guys/families are evac-ing inland.

Upshot:

8 am this morning, 39 knots was our max predicted wind for 2 pm Saturday.

This afternoon, we are now in the 61 knot band and WAY closer to the center of things, maxing at 5 pm.  This is not taking into account the military shift, just based on NHC.

NHC is predicting about a 70% chance for us to get sustained 50 knots (gusts around 70-75), and that will last a few hours.

I'm moving the boat out of the marina tomorrow morning, I don't have a true hidey hole, but I do have a spot that is reasonably well protected from the northeasterly we are expecting.

We are staying ashore and will update as possible.

[Godot]

I stripped the boat today, doubled the dock lines, and pretty much prepared as best I could.  The mood at the marina was quite subdued, but purposeful.  It looks like about half the boats haven't started preps, yet, though.  The storm shouldn't hit us until late Saturday, last I heard.  This could be bad. Maybe real bad.

My marina is in a nice little hurricane hole, and is theoretically protected from the worst of the storm surge. Pretty much everyone is planning on riding out the storm in the water, at the docks.  The marina personnel are confident.  We'll see if this is the best choice or not in a couple days.

[s/v Faith]

John,

  THanks for the PM.

I just finished a delivery from Tampa to New Bern (right into harm's way).  The owner has begged me to come back so I will fly out to Raleigh at first light tomorrow.

  I went to WM abd bought a big ol fortress (gonna have fun getting it on the plane).... and lots of line.

Flying into Raleigh (in case they close New Bern early)... should be there by 2 tomorrw.

[Captain Smollett]

Flying into Raleigh (in case they close New Bern early)... should be there by 2 tomorrw.

Give me a call either when you get here, or if you can enroute from Raleigh.  I should be done with what I'm going to do by then.

(And you have a place to stay if you need it...B was talking about pitching a tent in the back yard of this place anyway, just to see what the neighbors would say   ;D  ).

[CapnK]

Frankie - I didn't even think about your new house (and my loft apartment therein  ;D) - I really hope it made it through this in good shape! I shot out an email to Connie yesterday, I think they may have gotten hit pretty hard there, what with the low elevation and the relatively large surge for the Bahamas. Keepin my fingers crossed, though, for both of you!

Smollett, Adam, CJ, and all of my other sailFar friends in or near the path - best of luck to you! I'll be thinking about you all. Button up well! Then just pretend you're in a nasty, nasty squall that has finally pushed you around the Horn at last!

I doubt your sea state will match those conditions, even if the wind does. So that's something to be thankful about, right? ;D

[Tim]

Good Luck Smollett and Craig,

And you have a place to stay if you need it...B was talking about pitching a tent

Pretty optimistic I would say ;)

And best hopes going out to all of you out there.

Dang Frank let's hope you don't have to remodel already, (of course if you do, a second guest room would be in order I believe ;) )

[s/v Faith]

Flying into Raleigh (in case they close New Bern early)... should be there by 2 tomorrw.

Give me a call either when you get here, or if you can enroute from Raleigh.  I should be done with what I'm going to do by then.

(And you have a place to stay if you need it...B was talking about pitching a tent in the back yard of this place anyway, just to see what the neighbors would say   ;D  ).

I suspect I will either sleep onboard, (if in the slip) or spend the night running the motor against the wind (if I take it out to the anchorage).....

... either way I suspect it is going to be a long night.

[Jim_ME]

Also hoping for the best for all of you. Keep safe.

[CapnK]

Craig -

Please keep the following in mind:

1) It ain't yer boat.
2) *Their* boat is replaceable, and likely insured in some way (if no other than by their affluence).
3) The marina docks will hold together long enough for you to 'abandon ship' safely, if need be.

I hope they are paying you very well! I have some friends who did the 'motors & into the wind' thing with a 55' Hatteras sportfisherman in St. Thomas during Hugo. They were one of a very few boats left afloat afterwards, and only because their last line of 3/4" 3-strand held on long enough with only 2 strands intact. The other 3 or 4 parted. There were 2 of them aboard, and they stayed awake the entire night tending lines and such, and consider themselves very lucky to this day. They have told me how they saw "cruising" cats tumbling away downwind that night...

If you leave the marina, fer Pete's sake don't get into open roads by yourself - find a hidey hole.

Last - Do the easy thing. And Good Luck! Keep us posted.

Brunswick Co., NC radar at 6:35AM below...

[Godot]

Well, it looks like most of the upper Chesapeake will avoid the worst of the Hurricane, as we will be on the "good" side of rotation.  Which isn't to say that the conditions are going to be good.  Currently (and subject to the storm taking a detour) we are looking to expect NE wind of 40-50 knots, 70 MPH gusts, 8 inches of rain, possible storm surge of three feet or so.  

The way I understand these things, with the eye passing to the east of us, the NE winds will be blowing water out of the bay, not in, so maybe (?) flooding won't be too big an issue?

[CharlieJ]

Tehani is secured with 8 lines, to 6 different pilings and a dock. She should be fine.

If it looks really bad tomorrow noon, I'll split I suppose, although I hate leaving the boat. But the guesses are improving for here.

[Captain Smollett]

If you leave the marina,- find a hidey hole.

He really cannot get anywhere.

Up the Trent from him is a fixed bridge he cannot clear, and out into the Neuse, the 16 ft draw bridge is going to cease opening operations (unsafe to open above certain wind speed) about the time he arrives here.

He's pretty much stuck where he's at.  He could anchor out off the marina or just the other side of the railroad bridge, but...well, roll your dice and choose your bet vs staying in the slip.

I just got back from moving my boat 4 miles up the Trent.  Anticipating most of the big winds (current predictions are 3-4 hours at least of sustained 50-60 knots, with gusts in the mid 70's) from the NE and N, I anchored along a stretch where the river runs along NW - SE.  I'm tucked away in about 8 feet of water with about 120 ft out on my primary; second anchor is almost due west of the primary (hard to set with the wind currently blowing from the east), with considerably less scope (but still 7 or 8 to one), but I added a 25 lb kellet (which will be more of a sentinel if that line starts to work for a living) 10 or 12 feet up from the anchor.

The anchors themselves are 35 lb Manson for primary and 33 lb S-L Claw for secondary.  They are in a "V" off the bow on independent rodes and separate cleats.  This will be a good test of my new 12" Herreschoff's and my cleat mounting technique/ability.

Old dishrags and heavy duty tape comprise my attempt at chafe protection.  We shall see.

The only "loose" things on deck are two fenders that are tied to lines in turn secured to cleats.  These I hope will act as bouy's to mark the hull position if she happens to sink.  They are in the cockpit sole.

Most the 'big' powerboats I saw were anchored with a very similar strategy to mine.  #2 anchor rodes were slack since we are presently on an East wind, but the big stuff will be 90-ish degrees more to the north.

I saw one with both his anchors out holding the boat in position now.  I hope the one that gets the full load when the shift happens is up to the task.  He's over a mile from me (and a around a bend).

Another had two from the bow but in Bahamiam Moor configuration...180 degrees from each other on an E-W line.  That's probably not a bad lie, either, and I thought of doing it that way myself.

If anyone wants to critique my technique, please do so, but I ask that you wait until AFTER the storm.  :)  PLEASE don't rattle what bit of faith I have in the system at present.  It's not like I feel she's 90+% bombproof, but the best I could do this go around (my confidence level is quite a bit lower than 90%, but oh well...she's out of the marina where at least she has a chance).

Also, let's chalk one up to sailfar size boats and older, low aspect rigs.  I cleared (with feet to spare) the 45 ft fixed bridge to have more options available to me compared to other, similar LOA vessels with higher aspect ratios that could NOT clear the bridge, and they had not choice but to stay put in marina or run out the opening bridge, into the BIG river and find a hole or boatyard to haul.  Small boats rock.

Waiting til the XO gets off work to decide if we are heading to Raleigh.  Right now, given data I have at the moment, leaning toward staying here.

Rather the Brunswick Co. radar, I'm watching Cartaret (Newport/Morehead NWS).  This is pretty close to where landfall is expected.

(image will update...to lazy and tired at the moment to save an image, photobucket and post).



There's my update from 20-30 or so miles from where the eye is expected to "hit" land.   ;)


Edit:  Just wanted to add for those not familiar with the NC Coast and where we are in relation to the storm - on the radar map, if you find the river that looks like a check mark, that's the Neuse.  New Bern is approximately at the end, and you can just make out the little "tick" mark where the Trent is wide enough to show in this scale.  

[Mario G]

We are still setting here on the SC/NC line with Samara secured to a floating dock and stripped of everything. the rains have started with the winds picking up and the storm is still 20 hours out. The only thing I am worried about is not everybody at the marina is prepared, thinking we are not going to get hit.

We are lucky the in laws live just a few miles from the marina.

my prayers go out to all

[Tim]

The way I understand these things, with the eye passing to the east of us, the NE winds will be blowing water out of the bay, not in, so maybe (?) flooding won't be too big an issue?

Not necessarily true Adam, according to Jeff Masters;

However, since Irene is such a huge storm--tropical storm force winds extend out up to 290 miles from the center--it has set a massive amount of the ocean's surface in motion, which will cause a much larger storm surge than the winds would suggest. At 9:30am EDT this morning, a wind analysis from NOAA/HRD (Figure 1) indicated that the potential storm surge damage from Irene rated a 5.1 on a scale of 0 to 6. This is equivalent to the storm surge a typical Category 4 hurricane would have. While this damage potential should gradually decline as Irene moves northwards and weakens, we can still expect a storm surge one full Saffir-Simpson Category higher than Irene's winds. Since tides are at their highest levels of the month this weekend due to the new moon, storm surge flooding will be at a maximum during the high tidal cycles that will occur at 8 pm Saturday night and 8 am Sunday morning.

[Captain Smollett]

Not necessarily true Adam, according to Jeff Masters;

Jeff Masters writes a good piece and I do like his site overall...but...

I think that last bit is sensationalist poop.

We'll see in two days who's right...the NHC and USMC wx forecasters, or blogger Jeff with web hits to sell.