weather

[Tim]

Not necessarily true Adam, according to Jeff Masters;

Jeff Masters writes a good piece and I do like his site overall...but...

I think that last bit is sensationalist poop.

We'll see in two days who's right...the NHC and USMC wx forecasters, or blogger Jeff with web hits to sell.

that may be true John, but even the NHC gives a pretty strong warning;

STORM SURGE...AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER
LEVELS BY AS MUCH AS 6 TO 11 FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL IN THE
HURRICANE WARNING AREA IN NORTH CAROLINA...INCLUDING THE ALBEMARLE
AND PAMLICO SOUNDS. STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY AS MUCH
AS 4 TO 8 FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL OVER SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE
CHESAPEAKE BAY...INCLUDING TRIBUTARIES...AND THE EASTERN SHORE OF
THE DELMARVA PENINSULA.  STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY AS
MUCH AS 3 TO 6 FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL ALONG THE JERSEY SHORE.
NEAR THE COAST...THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE...
DESTRUCTIVE...AND LIFE-THREATENING WAVES.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCPAT4+shtml/251156.shtml

and of course this is with the caveat that I am on the other side of the continent and don't know squat about Hurricanes or your weather at all.

[CapnK]

Smollett -

It'll never work...er, um, sounds great!

;D

In all seriousness, it does sound like you are as good as you can get, and though I hope it was some cleverness that won't be checked for functionality, I like the fenders in the cockpit idea. :)

So Craig is at New Bern Marina?

Nothing is going to happen here. Why? Because I am as prepared as possible...  ::)

Mario - y'all are up in Lil River, by town, right? Not on the ICW? I think you'll be way fine there.

Adam - go hang a sign on your boat: "Chuck Norris's Favorite Boat". That oughta do it... ;D

CJ - I have a birthday gift from my bro, 12 yr old, 5x distilled Zaya rum. I'll hoist one to ya later tonight! :D

[Tim]

CJ - I have a birthday gift from my bro, 12 yr old, 5x distilled Zaya rum. I'll hoist one to ya later tonight! Cheesy

::) Smug as a bug in a rug  ;D :P

[Captain Smollett]

Just for the fun of the exercise, let's dissect the two reports.

NHC;  Data...storm surge levels expected for specific regions.  This I can use to plan, and lacks 'emotional punch' of labeling things as "big" or "bigger" or "biggest."  

Masters:  CAT 4 like storm surge!

There is not one single piece of usable data in that whole quote.  The closest is the

a wind analysis from NOAA/HRD (Figure 1) indicated that the potential storm surge damage from Irene rated a 5.1 on a scale of 0 to 6.

Which includes the arbitrary scale of 0-6 and the further subjective comparison of 'what a Cat 4 WOULD HAVE.'

Maybe no one except me will see the difference in these two approaches to presentation of information, but I maintain that "cold data" is far more useful than sensationalizing to make things sound bigger than they are.

The 5.1...the largest surges...are for the Sounds, which is NOT the same thing as 20 miles up river (for us) or up bay (for Adam)...the Sounds are essentially very shoal-ey bits of the open ocean with a tiny little 'reef' of a sandbar breaking up the 'normal' surf.

Focusing on the surge in the sounds is like saying the eyewall offshore has 40 foot seas...ergo, we will get at least a 20 ft surge.  That might be true FOR THE SOUNDS, but NOT for "inland."

I'm not trying to be argumentative, but during weeks like this I spend a CRAZY amount of energy fighting this sensationalism and trying to get my own friends and (extended) family to LOOK AT REAL DATA.

Another example:

My sister called a bit ago saying she read in her local paper (100 miles inland) that Irene is "the size of Katrina."

Uh, no.  Not even close.

Okay, maybe they both cover the same geographical area (maybe), but come on...a glancing blow from a Cat 2 that is moving 12-15 knots (and speeding up) is NOT that same thing as was Katrina was...by a LONG shot.

The reference to Katrina was an emotional appeal...one form of logical fallacy.

It brings NOTHING to the analysis dealing with a storm like this requires.  I'd just assume they shut up and not say anything.

Local weatherman:  "we may get 90 mph winds."  Yes, me MAY.  There's about a 2% chance of that, by my read.

Oh wait, maybe he's looking at GUSTS.  Still...maybe 5-10%.

heck, we only have a 40% chance of getting the 64 knots required to call it "hurricane" conditions.

There's only a 60% chance of getting 50 knot winds (strong TS).

The "official" forecast for us, right here, is 60 knots with gusts in the low-mid 70's.

Where the heck does he get this 90 mph poop from?  His butt?

It's an easy sell when you assume your audience knows nothing of statistics and what they mean for making predictions/forecasts.

The key word there is "sell."  He has advertisers to keep happy, and they are only happy if people watch HIM rather than the other guy.  They quickly get into little 'wars' regarding who can paint the scariest picture and still maintain some semblance of scientific integrity (by some measure).

I leave you with this horse squeeze from West Palm Beach several days ago:

"Hurricane Irene is just BLOWING UP!"

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WT1qF9Lso2s

Uh...going from Cat 1 to Cat 2 in a very normal fashion (after getting back over water) and AS PREDICTED for over 12 hours by NHC is NOT 'blowing up."

Geez.  Just make it stop.

Soapbox off now, and I'll go back to listening to the intermittent showers.

[Captain Smollett]

I like the fenders in the cockpit idea. :)

So Craig is at New Bern Marina?

As I got my feet back on Terra firma, I realized that big aluminum stick would be a pretty good indicator, too.   ;D  Oh well.  So much for thinking on one's feet (and I had to do something with the fenders...they were dirty and I did not want to put them below).

Craig's not here yet...but due to arrive in about an hour or less.  The marina he's working from is the one across the river from 'mine,'...the New Bern Grand, aka The Hilton Hotel Marina (formerly The Sheraton, before that...well, whatever).

[Sid T]

I just returned from Oriential, (Smith Creek). I had 2 more pilings put in several weeks ago, so I have 4 pilings and Tideminders tied on the weather side, also I deployed and set an anchor on that side. On the pier side I ran lines from the pilings I am tied to out around some trees on shore. All sails have been removed. I was feeling pertty good until just before I left a 50 ft trawler came in and anchored about 250 feet Northeast of me now I figure about a 50/50 chance

[CapnK]

I was feeling pertty good until just before I left a 50 ft trawler came in and anchored about 250 feet Northeast of me now I figure about a 50/50 chance

Bastage...  >:(

You should dinghy over and ask for their insurance papers.  ;D

[Godot]

I am way up the Chesapeake, on a creek, off a river, that is protected by an island.  I am not expecting much surge where I am, though, it is entirely possible that high tide will be two or three feet higher than normal.  My biggest concern is that low tide will be VERY low on Sunday, and since I don't have a lot of surplus depth in my slip, I will likely be aground.  If I list to port, all is good as there is nothing in the three slips to my left.  If I list to starboard, and the boat in THAT slip lists to port, our masts are gonna be making some music.

But, then again, Mother Nature really is making a female dog of herself this week.  Who knows what will happen in the end.

[Sid T]

I did take a long time standing in the cockpit recording their name and port so they could see what I was doing.

[CapnK]

Irene has officially broken teh internets in SC.

Maybe too much rain got into the tubes...

[Captain Smollett]

Currently some gusts around 50 knots, sustained seems about mid 30's to me.  (The gusts I quote were from a measurements published on the 'Net).

[CapnK]

Previous post was via phone.

We've turned the corner here - North eyewall is almost due East, so the wind is now coming from shore (instead of down-river w/1.5miles fetch), and rain is steady but fairly light. Winds are stronger than they were earlier, but with this direction that mostly just means noise.

Hope the rest of y'all make it 'round the corner as well as we have... :)

On edit: Also, if it's not just a wobble I'm seeing, it appears that there is an easterly trend to the track that puts the eye landing a bit more over towards Shackleford Banks/Ocracoke, instead of Morehead/Beaufort. I'll keep my fingers crossed that this is so!

[Godot]

I'm feeling more confident about this storm, now.  With only a 1-3 foot storm surge predicted for Baltimore (and likely less, if any, for my little creek), I'm fairly confident that I'll have a boat to use on my little sailing vacation starting next weekend.  The storm is weakening a bit, and tracking in a direction which is beneficial to me (though not those on the Atlantic coast).

[Captain Smollett]

Happened to wake up about 30 min ago and power eas on...saw some bright blue flashes to ne and power is out. Guess it will be til next week til we get it back.

[CharlieJ]

Really just cranking up here. Rain started  bout 0300, wind at 0600.

Rain fairly heavy in bbands, then light. Wind around 20-25 but hard to say for sure cause I'm screened by    trees all around.

Things are looking better for sure- intensity forecasts way down. Norfolk NAS reporting winds at 29. Not bad.

No internet except Iphone.

Ooops- power just quit. No more fan  >:(

[tomwatt]

Sitting here all high and dry inland, I'm wishing everyone a safe anchorage through this. The sanest comparisons I've seen in the news was to Gloria, which although small, did a fair bit of damage. May all y'all be spared.
I think the biggest part of the media hyperventilation comes from the probable hit on New York City... like hot sauce, what does NYC know about hurricanes? Best wishes to all.

[jotruk]

just remember that everyone over there can send us some of that rain. looks like it will be between 105 and 110 here today we haven't had a real rain since may and the lake is down about 16+ feet cant get the boat out. so the weather goes from one extreme to another.

[Tim]

http://www.towndock.net/  is doing a good job of staying up with pictures

[CapnK]

Thx for the link, Tim. They got it worse than we did, for sure.

Looks like Smollet is behind the eye now...

[Mario G]

Fair'd well here, lots of wind and rain, nothing more then small tree limbs down. Well there is one 25' boat that flipped and sank.