H. Sandy

[Tim]

Hoping this kind of prediction is overblown, but all my friends out there take care just in case.

http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/article.html

[tomwatt]

Likewise, hoping all our litle brood of SailFarers, their friends & family & neighbors remain safe. Predictors for an off-the-charts storm are disconcerting. There were some big, bad storms up the coast in the 19th century that caused a lot of damage & killed many... hopefully this one won't go that route.

[s/v Faith]

Maybe i am missing something, but this 'event' seems mostly to be about the threat to the coast that does not normally get much hurricane activity.

Sandy is a cat 1 hurricane, which is not normally a big concern when it is headed for FL, SC, or any of the Gulf states (other then Lousianna)  :-\

It seems to me that this one is news because of the threat to NY.

BTW, I was in the North Atlantic during the 'Storm of the Century' so I understand frontal convergence....

it just seems to me that they are 'Frankenhyping' this one.

Hope I am right for all in her path anyway.

[Tim]

Yes, I think the threat is a large storm surge in areas not at all prepared for it.

[CapnK]

Glass half full: There should be some cool "large swells in places you don't normally see such" video coming from this. ;)

I think that the media is gonna waaaay overhype this since it will happen in *their* backyard for once, and that hyping will compound the real effects it is going to have... That said, hopefully the infrastructure in the big cities is up to the task, and we won't see people going crazy and rioting and looting and such.

WRT "Frankenhyping" - Don't lat the WU blogs get you down. :) I have long been a member and daily visitor of WU, and like anyone who is a regular on his blog, can tell you that Dr. Jeff is a very vocal proponent of his particular beliefs, sometimes to the point of sensationalism.
But he owns the place, so if he wants to use it as a bully pulpit, then I reckon he has every right to do so - but do be aware of the fact that it is what it is.
I've learned to temper what I read there with information from other sources in order to try and form an objective view. :)

Local Sandy report: We have been getting wind here for 2 days now, northerlies, with a whole lotta gusts up into the high teens/pushing 20 right now. Tomorrow is supposed to bring 30-40 and gusts to 50. I plan to take the little stink potter and go down and check out the ocean tomorrow and Sunday, see if we are getting any big ground swell off of Sandy. I'll see if I can get some of that "cool video" to post - but not if it is too risky. :)

[CapnK]

Well, the media has sure made an impression. Gizmodo is asking readers to send in their best "Frankenstorm" shots. Below is just one example of many similar, it is a Target grocery store in NJ...

[Oldrig]

I tend to agree about the media hype, but this does look kind of threatening.

I just got back from Cape Cod, where I moved my boat to a heavy mooring at a sheltered yard, and stripped everything but the rigging (running and standing) from her. They're expecting a heavy storm surge on the south coast of Cape Cod, and NHS is still posting a warning for "hurricane-force winds."

Best wishes to those in the Chesapeake and mid-Atlantic regions, where there is even a chance of snow in West Virginia. I expect the most long-lasting problems here in the Northeast will come from the totally incompetent, bottom-line-driven utilities, which have to rely on crews of temps brought in from all over, because they have let all their experienced local linemen go. Last year, we were without power for four days, while the next town over, which has a municipally-owned power company, was down for three hours.

Sorry for the rant. Best wishes to all in Sandy's path. Prayers, too.

--Joe

[Tim]

Yep Joe, hyped or not there is going to be some damage. Hoping for the best, take care all.

[SalientAngle]

the s/v Bounty tall ship rescue is on going, conflicting reports, but, the Bounty was on the market... http://webcache.googleusercontent.com/search?q=cache:l2FuPk4XT1oJ:easternyachts.com/bounty/specifications.htm+&cd=2&hl=en&ct=clnk&gl=us&client=firefox-a

[SalientAngle]

    Eternal Father, Strong to save,
    Whose arm hath bound the restless wave,
    Who bid'st the mighty Ocean deep
    Its own appointed limits keep;
    O hear us when we cry to thee,
    for those in peril on the sea.

    O Christ! Whose voice the waters heard
    And hushed their raging at Thy word,
    Who walked'st on the foaming deep,
    and calm amidst its rage didst sleep;
    Oh hear us when we cry to Thee
    For those in peril on the sea!

    Most Holy spirit! Who didst brood
    Upon the chaos dark and rude,
    And bid its angry tumult cease,
    And give, for wild confusion, peace;
    Oh, hear us when we cry to Thee
    For those in peril on the sea!

    O Trinity of love and power!
    Our brethren shield in danger's hour;
    From rock and tempest, fire and foe,
    Protect them wheresoe'er they go;
    Thus evermore shall rise to Thee,
    Glad hymns of praise from land and sea.

[SalientAngle]

Bounty was being operated as a "sea school"
http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/nova-scotia/story/2012/10/29/ns-hms-bounty-hurricane-sandy.html

[CapnK]

Bad, bad decision making there on the Bounty, & the loss of the ship is a damned shame, too. Reports that I've seen have the Captain as being one of the 2 souls who've been lost as a result. God be with them, and the survivors. It really needn't have happened at all, more's the shame...

Best wishes and prayers for those in the path; let's hope the only other losses are material in nature.

Pretty dramatic USCG video of some of the rescues:
http://static.dvidshub.net/media/video/1210/DOD_100600374/DOD_100600374-366x274-300k.mp4

[Tim]

That USCG video is amazing, gawd I hope I never get to see that in person

[Oldrig]

Amazing video, Kurt. Thanks for posting.

Those rescue swimmers are the most heroic people around today. And the 'copter crews, too.

Talk about self-sacrifice!

[Tim]

How you holding up Joe?

[SalientAngle]

s/v Bounty documentation
http://www.st.nmfs.noaa.gov/pls/webpls/cgv_pkg.vessel_id_list?vessel_id_in=960956

WDD9114 FCC liicense information
http://wireless2.fcc.gov/UlsApp/UlsSearch/license.jsp?licKey=2935665

[SalientAngle]

sailwx ship track info for WDD9114 bounty...
http://www.sailwx.info/shiptrack/shipposition.phtml?call=WDD9114

[CapnK]

I know some areas had to have been hit hard, but right now I am listening/watching to the weather.com stream, and the announcer guy and Jim Cantore (who's at Battery Park, NYC) are trying ***really, really hard*** to make the effects so far of the "superstorm" live up to the hype they have been giving it, but based on the scene there, it sure is not very convincing. :)

I mean, there's no wind there to speak of (Cantore couldn't even feel enough to give it a direction), the water is just over the top of the wall, but during the last ten minutes they've managed to convince each other that it is going to rise 1- no 2! - no 3! feet when the wind goes east/southeast...

I hope that the scene there is by and large indicative of the rest of the NE, and that things overall are not nearly as bad as they could have/were supposed to be.

(On Edit: 45 minutes, water level has risen about 6" from what I can see - from Cantores calves to (almost) his knees. :) )

[Captain Smollett]

I am so sick of the hype they give these storms.  As a scientist, I find it incredibly offensive.

My inland BiL and I spoke on the phone today, and he asked me how things were here.  When I told him pretty much nothing going on (we got a little rain over the weekend and our highest wind GUST was about 30 knots at 4 am Sunday morning), he said they were worried because that's NOT how his local news was reporting it.

He said they were reporting that we were essentially getting slammed.  Eh, what?

As soon as I heard the "Frankenstorm" BS last week, I knew I had to tune it out.  This is just out of hand.  It's NOT science.

The only guys I can tell are doing real science on these storms anymore are the NHC boys themselves.  And, here's what they had to say this even at 17:00:

THE CONVECTIVE STRUCTURE OF SANDY HAS DETERIORATED TODAY...EVEN AS
THE CENTRAL PRESSURE HAS CONTINUED TO SLOWLY FALL...SUGGESTING THAT
THE CONVECTION IS NO LONGER DRIVING THE BUS.  THE INTENSIFICATION
OBSERVED THIS MORNING WAS ASSOCIATED WITH STRONG WINDS OCCURRING TO
THE SOUTHWEST OF THE CENTER...OUTSIDE OF THE CENTRAL CORE...AND WAS
ALMOST CERTAINLY DUE TO BAROCLINIC FORCING.  IN ADDITION...AIRCRAFT
DATA INDICATE THAT THERE ARE STRONG TEMPERATURE CONTRASTS VERY NEAR
A MODEST RESIDUAL WARM CORE.  WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES THAT
SANDY IS BECOMING ABSORBED WITHIN A LARGE MID-LATITUDE CYCLONIC
CIRCULATION.  ALL OF THESE CONSIDERATIONS LEAD US TO CONCLUDE THAT
THE MOST APPROPRIATE CLASSIFICATION AT ADVISORY TIME IS
EXTRATROPICAL.  HOWEVER...FOR CONTINUITY OF SERVICE NHC WILL
CONTINUE TO ISSUE ADVISORIES THROUGH LANDFALL.  A POST-STORM
ANALYSIS WILL RE-EXAMINE THE TIMING OF EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION.  

WE ANTICIPATES THAT THE LAST NHC ADVISORY ON SANDY WILL BE ISSUED AT
11 PM EDT TONIGHT. SINCE ALL COASTAL TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS HAVE
BEEN DISCONTINUED...THERE WILL BE NO INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORIES
ISSUED BETWEEN NOW AND THE 11 PM NHC ADVISORY.

Now, does that sound like a "Frankenstorm?"  Those guys are the real experts...the guys with their necks on the line if THEIR interpretation of the data goes wrong and people get hurt because they underplayed an event.

The rest?  They are like leeches taking the NHC data (and forecast and discussion products) and milking it for ratings...nothing more.

Too, I'm trying to figure out why NC was a declared State of Emergency days before the dang storm even hit, and looking around, I'm wondering how in the HECK that could be even remotely justified.

I hope and pray it is just as underwhelming up north...those in the path of this EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE (not Hurricane) could face real damage.  I hope they don't.  But storm of the century, perfect storm (saw it called that in an article this morning), Frankenstorm?

Gah.  I feel like throwing up.  Excuse me.



[On Edit]:

Jeff Masters seems to have become among the biggest of the sell-outs.  No science left.  I cannot bring myself to read a word he writes.  I would suggest anyone that reads his tripe rethink it.

Go straight to the source...that's the best info.  NHC, NWS and NOAA.

[s/v Faith]

Please John, do not hold back like this...   

  Let us all know how you really feel. 

:)


I was in your neck of the woods today, working on the boat I am taking to the BVI's next month.  I was running around working on the boat in the midst of the hysteria... I was actually aloft in the middle of this...   yea, I saw nothing I would not have sailed in here in New Bern.

Hope all up north fare as well (and the lost crew of the Bounty).