Chris Parker, & the Marine Weather Center.

[s/v Faith]

Out cruising, I start most days with a cup of coffee and Chris Parker on the Kaito.

As a cruiser, he has a unique perspective on the weather.. He really does not waste any time on how it affects your golf game, or if you should bundle your children to wait for the bus.  He is all about how the weather affects us.  Subtitle differences in wind between the windward and lee sides of an island are not lost to him, or the affect of a swell in an anchorage.

 He does an excellent job of giving the right balance of the technical rational behind the forecast, while progressively moving from technical to the very plain over the course of the discussion.  

 This year, I paid for his weather routing service.  I have only used it a couple times, but it is worth it to me to support the service I use.  

Chris Parker, and the Marine Weather Center website.


 His schedule, from his website is;

Chris Parker schedule SSB


Nets conducted 6 days/week, Monday through Saturday.

SUMMER: Effective during US Daylight Saving Time (March-October):
4045 USB 6:30am AST / EDT, 1030 UTC
8137 USB 7:00am AST / EDT, 1100 UTC
4045 USB 8:00am AST / EDT, 1200 UTC
8104 USB 8:30am AST / EDT, 1230 UTC
12350 USB 9:15am AST / EDT, 1315 UTC

6221 USB 9:30am AST / EDT, 1330 UTC

When Tropical weather has the potential to threaten any interests I'm aware of (and occasionally during periods of Spring & Fall migration), we'll conduct an evening Net, usually on 8104 USB at 7:00pm AST / EDT,  2300 UTC, unless announced otherwise.

WINTER: Effective during US Standard Time (November into March):
8137 USB 7:00am AST / 6:00am EST, 1100 UTC
4045 USB 7:30am AST / 6:30am EST, 1130 UTC
8104 USB 8:30am AST / 7:30am EST, 1230 UTC
12350 USB 9:30am AST / 8:30am EST, 1330 UTC
6221 USB 10am AST / 9am EST, 1400 UTC

WINTER: Effective during US Standard Time (November into March):
8137 USB 7:00am AST / 6:00am EST, 1100 UTC
4045 USB 7:30am AST / 6:30am EST, 1130 UTC
8104 USB 8:30am AST / 7:30am EST, 1230 UTC
12350 USB 9:30am AST / 8:30am EST, 1330 UTC
6221 USB 10am AST / 9am EST, 1400 UTC

[s/v Faith]

From his website;

PRIMER for Chris Parker?s Email forecasts ? Bahamas Region

Posted on February 7, 2013 by The Weatherman
I try to choose my words carefully. I am as specific as I can be. If I speak about something in general terms, or impacting a general area, it means I don?t have sufficient information to make a more-specific guess, and/or it applies throughout the area.

Forecast is in several parts:

1.) Recent observational data.

2.) Analysis of current satellite / RADAR imagery.

3.) Synopsis is weather features, sometimes with a general discussion of predicted conditions in some areas of the region. Synopsis is generally day-by-day for 5-7 days, but I?ll break it up differently as necessary.

4.) Outlook for 5-10 days, or as far into the future as I can make a guess.

5.) Specific forecasts for Precipitation (and squalls) / Winds / Seas. This is normally divided by weather-parameter (Precipitation first, then Wind, then Seas). One reason ? if the forecast is wrong, you may see conditions similar to adjacent areas?so it?s useful for
you to be aware of the forecast for adjacent areas. Occasionally, I?ll break this section down by LOCATION, with each parameter (Precip, Wind, Seas) discussed by location.

PRECIP ? I usually discuss coverage (in order of increasing coverage: isolated / scattered / numerous or widespread). I also discuss character of precip (convergence can be nasty, but not severe, while convective has potential to be severe), and try to offer a guess as to wind anomalies in the precip ? sometimes as wind speed ?added to gradient wind?,
sometimes as total wind in squalls.

WIND ? speed & direction, as follows: Direction: I usually give this in degrees TRUE. The forecast is NOT so accurate that you should really expect wind of 070-degrees to be from
070-degrees. My main reason for specifying 070-degrees is to offer you insight into the TREND in wind direction. 070-degrees is just about ENE. 060-degrees is ENE. A change from 070 to 060 suggests a BACKING TREND to the wind direction, rather than a forecast for those numbers specifically.

Speed: in kts. I usually only give a specific number, such as 18k. You should mentally ?bracket? this ? I?m not predicting a steady 18k ? you should read this as 18k greater variance?in the case of 18k, you should interpret this as a forecast for 15-21k. If I say ?gusty?, add another 20% for gusts, which would make the forecast for 18k & gusty = 15-25k.

Two reasons I give specific wind velocity, rather than brackets: 16k & 18k are both ?15-20k?. 18k today & 16k tomorrow suggests a TREND of decreasing wind. TRENDS are very important in your decision-making. Also, it saves several characters ? many clients receive forecasts on slow email connections, and every character we can shave off we do.

You may notice the < sign occasionally. It describes a trend. For instance 090@12<15 means 090-degree wind building from 12k to 15k during the applicable period.

Sometimes, I give wind direction in ?cardinal? units (N or NW or SSE, etc.), or wind speed in brackets ? I do this when I?m so uncertain that I can?t get more specific.

REMEMBER TO CONSIDER WIND IN SQUALLS! My ?wind? forecast is generally for wind in the absence of significant squalls. ALWAYS refer to the ?PRECIP? forecast for wind in squalls!

SEAS ? I give height, periodicity, and direction. Sometimes I specify wind-chop versus swell. Sometimes I give both. If I give both, you should neither add the two nor just look at the largest sea. The real answer is inbetween ? generally take the larger sea & add half of the smaller sea to get the total height. Each vessel responds to different seas in a different manner. If you know what?s out there, you can make an educated guess about how your vessel will respond.

6.) CROSSING ? forecast between Florida & Bahamas, along N ROUTE (GreatSaleCay / MemoryRock / MantanillaShoal / WestEnd?to PalmBeach /LakeWorth / FtPierce), and S ROUTE (GreatBahamaBank / Bimini /SouthRidingRock?to FtLauderdale / Miami / KeyLargo).

7.) OTHER AREAS ? this section varies by season:

KyW (Key West, in winter only)
CFL (Central Florida E Coast ? CapeCanaveral area, year-round)
NFL-GA (North Florida-Georgia, year-round)
SC (South Carolina, not in winter)
NC (North Carolina ? only portion of Coast from CpLookout to SouthCarolina border, not in winter)
Hatteras-to-Chesapeake (N-bound from CpLookout to ChesapeakeBayEntrance, Spring-Summer)
Chesapeake-to-Hatteras (similar but in reverse, only in Fall)
Chesapeake-to-S NewEngland (Chesapeake to BlockIsland/Newport, Late Spring-Summer)
S NewEngland-to-Chesapeake (similar but in reverse, only in late Summer-Fall)
GEOGRAPHY:
In discussions, I try to divide forecasts into the NW Bahamas (Abaco / N of Nassau / Berrys / N Andros / N Eluthera / GrandBahama / Bimini)?the C Bahamas (Exumas / S Andros / S Eluthera / CatIsland / LongIsland / Jumentos / Conception / SanSalvador)?and SE Bahamas (Crooked / Acklins, and all Islands S&E through the Turks & Caicos).

When giving the specific forecast, I try to zero in on popular Cruising grounds, typically Abaco (a reasonable proxy for the NW Bahamas); Exumas (a reasonable proxy for C Bahamas); SE Bahamas (a reasonable proxy for SE Bahamas and T&C). If conditions vary significantly within these areas, I?ll get more specific. I often have to break the C Bahamas into N Exumas (a reasonable proxy for Nassau / N Andros / Eluthera / Exumas to StanielCay) and S Exumas (a reasonable proxy for Exumas from StanielCay S-ward / CatIsland / LongIsland / Jumentos / Conception / SanSalvador / RumCay).

Occasionally I?ll reference other areas:
NE Part of C Bahamas = the Islands from Eluthera thru Cat-Conception-SanSalvador-Rum, and possibly LongIsland?s E Coast.

Extreme SE Bahamas = Turks and Caicos and GreatInaugua S-and-E.

N Part of SE Bahamas = Samana, Mayaguana, and possibly N parts of Crooked-Acklins and T&C.

SW Bahamas = Andros-CaySlBank

FLStraits = waters S of FLKeys toward Cuba

N Bahamas = Abaco-GrandBahama

If this does not answer all your questions about the forecasts, please
let me know?cheers?Chris.

This entry was posted in Uncategorized. Bookmark the permalink.
← Entire US E Coast (from upper-FLKeys to Maine to NovaScotia) will see TropicalStormForce wind from Hurricane Sandy!PRIMER for Chris Parker?s email forecasts ? E Caribbean Region →

[s/v Faith]

Also;

  The Seven Seas Cruising Association has online weather classes taught by Chris Parker;

   
This week we?ve added webinar recordings by Chris Parker.

We?ve opened more recordings at SSU. Register and you will immediately receive the link to view the recording. Watch the recording as many times as you wish for the next 6 weeks. Pause to take notes. Email the instructor with your questions. It?s a great way to learn at your convenience!

Here?s what?s new this week (added to the others that are available, you can choose from 20 different webinars):

Weather 100 (an Intro to Basic Weather) with Chris Parker
Caribbean and Bahamas Weather ? Local effects with Chris Parker
Go to www.SevenSeasU.com to register. If you ever have any questions regarding Seven Seas U, please don?t hesitate to contact me at administrator@SevenSeasU.com.
SSCA Members, remember to get your discount code from the Members? Page at www.ssca.org (you must login with your SSCA info).

Help promote SSCA and Seven Seas U by sharing this on your Facebook. www.facebook.com/SevenSeasU

Cheers,
Tom Theisen
Seven Seas U

[s/v Faith]

A sample forecast...

  This one is today's Bahama mail;

Wx Update, Bahamas //WL2K R/ Wed26, 1p

BUOYS: FwyRk 330@25-30g35<360@22-24g27 / WEnd 340@25g30<360@20-22g25 / Canaveral 330@25-27g35<350@20g25, 8-10'/8-10secN / ChstnSC 320@26-30g40<340@18g24, 10'<7'/5-6sec / FryPnShl 320@27g37<20g25k, 10'<7'/6sec NW.

IMAGERY:
squalls mostly GreatInaugua-T&C ENE-wrd thru 26N/65W just ahead of ColdFRONT which should be moving thru SE Bahamas mid-day today.

SYNOPSIS:
MODELS in reasonably good agreement thru Fri28...but significant differences Sat29 onward as follows:

--GFS moves squally N-S-oriented pre-FrontalTROF from over E GOMEX and Florida Peninsula Fri28 thru waters between 80W-75W late Fri28 night-Sat29...with all of the significant gradient wind (SE<S wind) E of the pre-FrontalTROF...and lots of nasty T-strms along the pre-FrontalTROF...with fairly benign weather and a break to the squalls between 75W-81W during much of Sun30...before slow-moving ColdFRONT exiting SE US Sat29 night pulls the last of GOMEX energy across Florida Sun30 night and gradually thru NW Bahamas late Sun30 night / C Bahamas Mon31 / stalling across S half of Bahamas Tue1.

Lifted Index could be -3 to -5 and 1 inch or more of rain could accumulate along pre-FrontalTROF...suggesting numerous/widespread T-strms of significant intensity (easily 40 or 50k possible) from about 25N to over E US / S of 25N there should be much less coverage of any squalls until the actual ColdFRONT arrives? And then, the squalls should not be as great in coverage or intensity.

--EURO has stronger ColdFRONT more N-S-oriented and progressing S-and-E faster/earlier, with little-if-any break between the squally pre-FrontalTROF Fri28 night-Sat29 and the ColdFRONT entering Bahamas Sun30 installing across S half of Bahamas Mon31.

OUTLOOK...
wind-less HI/RIDGE establishes over or along SE US about Tue1 or Wed2, and brings a couple days of light conditions N of about 30N / moderate ENE<E trades (10-20k at most) S of 30N thru Bahamas.
GFS has a weak ColdFRONT off NC Wed2, with a brief shot of moderate N<E wind Wed2,  but EURO keeps the RIDGE in place with no FRONT.
Thu3 should become a bit pre-frontal along SE US coast with building S<SW wind ahead of weak ColdFRONT exiting SE US coast about Fri4...but this only presses the wind-less RIDGE S-and-E, bringing light conditions to W Atlantic offshore waters and Bahamas/SFL, with FRONT probably not reaching Bahamas.
And so, with very few/brief exceptions, Tue1-Fri4 should be much better than this week for mild-moderate travel thruout Bahamas, and from Bahamas to Florida and US ECoast.

TONIGHT?hide moving E thru VA-NC allows N<E wind to moderate in SE US / moderate winds to clock NE<E in waters farther S / ColdFRONT stalling along N coast of Hispaniola thru WindwardPsg supports compression zone S Bahamas where winds remain NE<ENE above 20k, while rest of Bahamas is around 20k-or-less clocking NE<E.

TOMORROW...HI strengthens off Hatteras and re-tightens gradient a bit, with E<SSE wins increasing SE US / E<SE wind increasing farther S / E<ESE winds increasing slightly in N-C Bahamas / ENE winds increasing a bit farther SE Bahamas in compression N of FrontalTROF.

FRI28...higher continue strengthening ENE of Bermuda...RIDGEing W-wrd along much of US ECoast, with massive amount of air transporting S-to-N across RIDGE and into strong LO moving from Ontario into Quebec and trailing a strong ColdFRONT thru Ohio Valley into Texas... And supporting lots of lift in N half of GOMEX where strong squalls fester along old FrontalTROF which lifted N from NW Caribbean into GOMEX. RESULT is S@20-25g30 along most of US ECoast and NFL / SSE@20g25 just S of RIDGE / SE/ESE/E@20g25 in NW/C/SE Bahamas (SE Bahamas may remain in excess of 20k in compression N of remnants of FrontalTROF).

FRI28 NIGHT-SAT29...squally pre-FrontalTROF may shift E from E GOMEX and Florida and SE US into waters off Florida and SE US and into Bahamas N of about 25N...restricting all of the still-brisk SE-S wind to areas E of the pre-FrontalTROF / strong squalls and T-strms along pre-FrontalTROF / possibly some interval of milder though unsettled weather W of pre-FrontalTROF. Bahamas S of about 25N were 24N should maintain more settled whether with gradually-decreasing E-SE trades. 2nd-ary LO forms over Tennessee-Kentucky.

SAT29 NIGHT-SUN30...secondary LO exits mid-Atlantic states and trails ColdFRONT off SE US thru NFL into E GOMEX Sat29 night...progressing S-and-E thru rest of Florida and into some part of Bahamas Sun30. Because of the pre-FrontalTROF which passed E of area Sat29, there is little pre-FrontalTROF Ian (only light wind clocking S<W<N)...but some squalls  near FRONT followed by increasing N-component wind behind FRONT.

FORECAST :
PRECIP:
Abaco: widespread/numerous T-strms to 40-50k seem likely Fri28 night thruout Sat29, isolated to 30k Sun30, possibly into Mon31.
N Exumas: slight chance for a few isolated T-strms to 40-50k (mostly extreme N part) Sat29, better chance for a few squalls to 30k Sun30-Mon31.
S Exumas: isolated squalls to 30k Sun30-Mon31.
SE Bahamas: isolated squalls with 5k enhanced wind thru Fri28, then isolated-scattered squalls to 30k Mon31-Tue1.

WIND (for wind near squalls see PRECIP) :
Abaco: by mid-day-to-day wind should DROP to 000@18g23 and<040@16g20 this afternoon; 040@16g20<080@18g23 tonight; 090@18g23<100@20g25 tomorrow; 120-130@20g25<17g22k Fri28; 140<180@15-20 early Sat29, may become S<SW<W<N@5-15 later Sat29-Sun30 (see squall forecast above!!!).

N Exumas: by mid-day-to-day wind should DROP to 010@18g23 and<040@18g23 this afternoon; 040@18g23<080@20g25 tonight; 090@20g25 tomorrow, 110-deg-120-deg Fri28; 130<160@16g20 most of Sat29; may clock SE@10-15<S@5-10<SW@5-10 late Sat29-Sun30.

S Exumas: by mid-day-to-day wind should BUILD to 010@20g25 and<040@20g25 this afternoon; 040@20g25<070@22g28 tonight; 070<110@22g28 tomorrow-Fri28; 120-140@16g20 most of Sat29; may fall 140@12<180@5-10 Sun30.

Jumentos-Acklins: by mid-day-to-day should BUILD to 010@18g23 and<040@20g25 this afternoon; 040@20g25<060@22g28 tonight; 060<110@23g30 tomorrow-Fri28; 110-120@18g23 Sat29; 120-150@15<10k Sun30.

T&C: NW@10 (higher in squalls) much of today<030@20g25 later this afternoon; 050<110@24g32 tomorrow-Fri28; 100@20g25 Sat29; 100-120@16g20<12g15k Sun30.

SEAS:
Abaco: to 12'/8sec NW<N today; 7'/7sec ENE<8'/10sec E tomorrow; 8'<7'/10secSE Fri28, 5' Sat29, 4' Sun30 (seas much higher near squalls Fri28 night-Sat29).
C Bahamas: 7-9'/8-9sec NW<N today; 7-9'/10-13secNNE tomorrow-Fri28, 7' and moderating Sat29...ALSO 6-8'/9-11sec E<SE tomorrow-Fri28; 6'/8secSSE Sat29.
SE Bahamas: N swell similar to C Bahamas...with the other seas 8'-10'/7-9secENE<ESE tomorrow-Fri28; 8'<7'/7-8sec Sat29.

CROSSING:
Thu27 & Fri28 should be good W-bound sailing for "Salty" sailors, with E<SE wind not much below 20k, and 6' seas that you would expect with 20k of wind (though of course confused because it's the GS).
I am concerned T-strms may develop toward the Florida coast Fri28 afternoon, though they will probably hold off until after sunset.
I strongly recommend lying in a protected spot Fri28 night for the expected strong T-strms along pre-FrontalTROF, and this activity may linger into Sun29.
I am not sure whether there will be some brief opportunity to transit in mild conditions between the pre-FrontalTROF (which passes Fri28 night into Sat29) and the ColdFRONT (which may bring another round of squalls immediately followed by brisk N wind) sometime Sun30 were Sun30 night? So it is difficult to recommend any transit during the interval of Fri28 evening thru Sun30 or Mon31.
Unusually-high confidence for forecast 6-8 days out that we will have benign conditions (ENE<E@10-17/2-5') Tue1-Thu3.

N ROUTE: by mid-day-to-day wind should DROP 010@17g22k and<030@15g20/10' this afternoon; 030<090@16g20/8' tonight; 090@16g20<110@18g23/5-6' tomorrow; 110@18g23<135@20g25/6' tomorrow night; 135@20g25<150@15-20g25 Fri28; 150<210@15-25 Fri28 night-Sat29 morning; uncertain S<W<N@5-15/3-6' late Sat29-Sun30...numerous/widespread squalls and T-strms to 40-50k/10' late Fri28 afternoon or evening into Sat29, some possibly lingering thruout Sat29; isolated squalls to 30k/8' near FRONT Sun30.

S ROUTE: by mid-day-to-day wind should DROP 2020@19g24<045@17g22k/10' this afternoon; 050@17g22k<090@20g25/8' tonight; 100<130@20g25/6' tomorrow into Fri28; 130@20g25<15g20k Fri28 afternoon; 135<180@15g20/5' Fri28 night-Sat29 morning; variable under 15k/4' Sat29-Sun30...scattered squalls and T-strms to 40-50k/10' late Fri28 afternoon-Sat29 and to 30k/6' Sun30-Mon31.

OTHER AREAS:
KyW: NE<E@15-20g25/4-6' thru tonight; E@22g28/7' tomorrow, SE Fri28; SE@20<10k/6'<3' late Fri28; variable under 15k/4' Sun29-Mon30...slight chance for a few T-strms to 40k Fri28 night-Sat29, to 30k Sun30-Mon31.

CFL: N@20<N E@15/8'<6' thru this evening; E@15<SE@20g25/5'<6' tomorrow; SE<SSE@20g25/6' Fri28; S@20g25<W@5-15 Fri28 night-Sat29; variable under 15k/4' later Sat29 into Sun30; steadier N<NE@20/6' behind FRONT sometime Sun30...numerous/widespread squalls and T-strms to 40-50k/12' late Fri28 afternoon or evening into Sat29, isolated thruout Sat29, isolated to 30k/8' Sun30 morning.

NFL-Georgia: N<E@10/3' this afternoon; ESE@12<SE@17/3'<5' tomorrow; SSE-SSW@20g25/6' tomorrow night-Fri28; variable S-W@5-15g20/5' Sat29; W<N<NE@20g25/6' Sat29 night-Sun30...squalls to 40k/10' Fri28, possibly Sat29, likely Sat29 night.

Carolinas: NNW@23<17k/8'<6' this afternoon; N@15<E@12/5'<4' tonight; E@12<SSE@17/3'<5' tomorrow; SSE<S@20-25g30/6-8' Fri28; S-SW@15-25g30 Sat29; WSW<NNW<N@25-30g35/8-10' Sat29 night-Sun30...squalls to 40k/12' Fri28 night-Sat29, and again late Sat29 night.