Hurricane discussion; Red flags are flying!

[Tim]

Will be watching! I have a few friends from trips down there now hopin' for the best

[Captain Smollett]

Right now, I'm keeping a close eye on Hannah.  The plan at the moment is for me to run down tomorrow, finish the last minute repairs, get in the water and be ready to make a run up-River sometime on Thursday.

If the 11 am forecast track is any good at all, that SHOULD give me time.

I really don't like the timing on this one.   :o

[Lynx]

Don't get bent out of shape to soon. The "Land" of the Bahamas should lessen it some. After it hits shore it will go down quite a bit and be a bad storm.

Expect lots of tree pruning that will wind up in the rivers.

[Captain Smollett]

Don't get bent out of shape to soon. The "Land" of the Bahamas should lessen it some. After it hits shore it will go down quite a bit and be a bad storm.

Yep.  The NE quadrant of a Cat 3 hurricane is a "bad storm."

There's a lot of Gulf Stream warmed seawater between the islands and the SC coast, and she is expected to re-intensify in 12-24 hours, depending on what happens with that upper level shear.  Of course, contrary to conventional wisdom and the intensification models, Hannah popped up to hurricane strength yesterday DESPITE a 30 knot vertical shear.  That's pretty rare.

Between THAT fact and how slow/wobbly her net movement is, she is defying the models and undermining forecasting confidence.  That's very common with slow moving storms with ill-defined steering currents.  The NHC is filling ALL of their "Discussion" products with language that essentially says "confidence in these forecasts, essentially intensity forecasts, for this system is very low."

The last time I saw a storm behaving like Hannah, that I recall at least, is Mitch.  And though initially thought to be of little danger while tooling around the Eastern Atlantic, he stalled, jogged and grew (overnight) into a Cat 5 that killed well over 20,000 people.

So, I'm keeping an eye on this storm very carefully.  Though I'm not thinking Hannah is another Mitch, she may pack a serious punch to the Eastern US yet.

[s/v Faith]

So, I'm keeping an eye on this storm very carefully.

  Where I live there is a name for that,


     "Wisdom".

[s/v Faith]

Glad to read CJ post;

Rain? What's that?

Actually we've had some in the last three weeks. Got 4 inches a couple weeks ago, but nothing from Gustav- we're too far away. Had north winds off of it today but the temps still hit 100.

Still have cracks in the ground here and there .

  Faith is fine, a boat a few slips down had a torn foresail but that was all i saw.  One of the marinas had some flooding in the parking lot.

[Frank]

Link to watch the progress   http://www.tenspider-weather.net/tropical-storm/tropical-cyclone-tracking.html#north-atlantic-hurricanes

[s/v Faith]

So, I'm keeping an eye on this storm very carefully.

  Where I live there is a name for that,


     "Wisdom".

  Looking at the spaghetti model, I think pretty much anyone on the east coast would be wise to keep an eye on this one....



(Of course this image will update just as the others posted above it....)

[s/v Faith]

Just experimenting with the current spaghetti model

[s/v Faith]

Cat IV!

  Man I hope this thing stays out to sea!

[CapnK]

Just checking in real quick-like. Been a LONG day! :) Hanna is due S of here, moving due N last update (@ 2PM), but the 5PMupdate is due any minute, and I think it likely she is going to give us the brush-by on the good side. :) Still in the marina, boat is spider-webbed, and we're ready for come what may. I'll check in later, but right now I need a cold frosty beer! lol

[saxon]

It's interesting to see where those projections of the Hurricane tracks end up, S/V Faith. Over here we are suffering nothing like the ferocity that the weather is bringing you folk, but for days now we have had gales and great amounts of rain. It almost seems that once Mother Nature has battered your side of the ocean she has a final fling on this side. Keep safe all, regards  Saxon.

[Lynx]

Stay aleart Kurt. Not much worried about the winds as the storm is not to big and unless you are in or close to the center you will not get them. Tidal surge and tornado's and floating/flying stuff is your main concern.

The reamins should pass by me in on Sat and early Sun. Not to bad, only 40 mph winds with gust up to 55. I am well sheltered. The main problem is that this area has not gotton a major storm in years and the trees are badly in need of pruning.

[Marc]

Kurt, I and my family are praying for you

[CapnK]

Thanks for the good thoughts, y'all. On the backside now, just about. It was an easy one, discounting all the prep, lol. :)

[s/v Faith]

Very glad to hear you and the crew dogs made it ok.  It looked like Hanna had lost some of her furry... I was hoping that was the case.

  S/V Gaelic Sea is still on the hard right? 

[Lynx]

Good News!!!

[CharlieJ]

Talked to John yesterday- Yes, Gaelic Sea is still on the hard. He should launch on Monday

Kurt - relieved all went well for you.

[Tim]

Oh Man, great to hear! Prep keeps you in shape!

[Auspicious]

Hanna is still over North Carolina. We should see whatever is left of her sometime late this afternoon. Hardly any wind through the night and first rain band started about half an hour ago.

Water levels are up about a foot or so over usual but no big deal.

Going to be a long day waiting.

Of course I ended up anchored in a spot with marginal signal for my data card, and the connection has mostly tanked since the rain started.