Keep your heads up!

[nowell]

Hey all. Just figured I would share some information with everyone. I know alot of people on here are retired, and some of us are investing to grow the cruising kitty.

With that in mind, I have some heads up for everyone. I work for JP Morgan supporting the trade software thats used for the companies Fixed Income (ie Govies, Corp papers, swaps, repos, etc). While, obviously, I can't comment on what exactly goes on I can give out my "feelings"

Having to work close with the traders on a daily basis, I can give you this feel. Tighten your belts, try not to make changes to your retirement/investment funds right now. If you do, make gentle changes. Q3 in 2009 is going to be good to us. If you have spare income (I know alot of people dont right now), try try try, to get in a mutual fund, or some safe blue chips. Let it sit.

Here is why. Everyone remembers the market being around 14k. The way the human memory works, when we start swinging back up, traders are benchmarking success off that 14k mark.

That being said, my personal opinion, and my current plan. Keep putting money in my investments. Tightening down the belt, even if it means putting off even the small jobs on the boat. We know we are in a recession, we know we have been in it for awhile. We know the bailout plan has put money in the economy. Now its time to sit and wait, and be ready. I say Q3. When it takes off, its going to be a heck of a ride. Don't miss out!

Again, I am not responsible for anything you might do in the market. I just want to give you guys a heads up of what the "feeling" is here on the "Street". Maybe give a little hope too.

[skylark]

Thanks, I appreciate the advice.  I am 100% in the market and buying more each paycheck so I like the advice!  The prices are very good right now, I am trying to buy as much as possible.

[Godot]

I pulled a large percentage of my investments out just before a big drop in order to buy some investment real estate.  I've been stressing a little that I won't be able to return it into the market before the market starts to recover.  Assuming I get it back in, given that I came out before a major drop, I will hopefully end up in real good shape.  If I miss the bounce (be it 1Q, 3Q, or two years from now) I think I would cry myself to sleep for a month.

I'm not overly stressed at this point, even though I've lost 40% on the year.  I figure I've got another 20+ years before retirement, which gives me a long term window.  I do understand the anxiety of the millions of folks who are much closer (or already in) retirement, though.

[Frank]

2 very basic 'market truths'. 1-Highest risk to 'buy in' is when things are going great  2- Maximum potential is when things are awful.  Research,research,research...buy good but undervalued companies. Wells Fargo is a great one right now.They kept their noses clean,have cash and are buying stuff up.  Warren said "be fearful when others are greedy...greedy when others are fearful"

[nowell]

2 very basic 'market truths'. 1-Highest risk to 'buy in' is when things are going great  2- Maximum potential is when things are awful.  Research,research,research...buy good but undervalued companies. Wells Fargo is a great one right now.They kept their noses clean,have cash and are buying stuff up.  Warren said "be fearful when others are greedy...greedy when others are fearful"

Yup, so true, and Warren's comment is perfect. Right now the hubub is all about the jobs Obama is wanting to create when he gets in office. American companies and American Growth funds are going to be the big winners in the long run. Be patient, but if your already in the market, don't knee jerk out.

[David_Old_Jersey]

The following is not meant as an attack - it's Sailfar.net, their are other places I do that  ;D........just meant as a very different (counterbalancing?) point of view.

Here is why. Everyone remembers the market being around 14k. The way the human memory works, when we start swinging back up, traders are benchmarking success off that 14k mark.

Traders are often full of poop  ;D. From 13,700 to 8,300 over the last 12 months is a drop of around 40%. To recover would take a move upwards of 60%. I ain't gonna say it ain't possible - but if it does that in Q3 I will post a Youtube of me walking butt naked down my local highstreet  :P I am sure many Japanese remember their market being at 38,900, that was in 1989. Now at 7800.

Q3 in 2009 is going to be good to us. If you have spare income (I know alot of people dont right now), try try try, to get in a mutual fund, or some safe blue chips. Let it sit.

Spare income? I am sticking it in a refit of my boat  :) and keeping the war chest stuffed with cash, just in case my revenue stream deterioates. If it stops I am going sailing for a couple of years  8) heck, I might go anyway! I figure I could be wrong, but if I miss out on 10 / 15% of a sustained upswing at the price of not being part of another 40% drop then it seems a fair trade off to me.

I say Q3. When it takes off, its going to be a heck of a ride. Don't miss out!

Q3 is it? Bearing in mind we are not even half way through the debacle as the effects of the banking meltdown have yet to really eat into the real economy you have a greater faith in our lords and masters than I do. And the gift of second sight  ;D My guesstimate is 5 years of flatlining with the occassional twitch of the corpse......if we are lucky and the bailout monies can still be borrowed on the industrial scale needed. Paying it all back is one for the Kids and possibly the Grandkids to worry about  :P Along the way I see some "good" companies going to the wall that would have normally (and in the past did) ride out a recession - it ain't just about choosing companies that will perform, it's about not choosing those that will cease to exist (at least for the current shareholders).

Not to say that their is no value out their (always is), but as always if folk are putting money into anything they have not researched and do not understand (stocks, real estate or boats!) then it is speculating and betting, not "investing"......and we can see the results of simple betting on things not understood - even by the proffessionals.

All of course IMO etc etc and don't blame me if folk sit out the biggest rally since Nuremberg  ;D


(Hey, nice use of the automatic change to "poop"  ;D).

[nowell]

The following is not meant as an attack - it's Sailfar.net, their are other places I do that  ;D........just meant as a very different (counterbalancing?) point of view.

Here is why. Everyone remembers the market being around 14k. The way the human memory works, when we start swinging back up, traders are benchmarking success off that 14k mark.

Traders are often full of poop  ;D. From 13,700 to 8,300 over the last 12 months is a drop of around 40%. To recover would take a move upwards of 60%. I ain't gonna say it ain't possible - but if it does that in Q3 I will post a Youtube of me walking butt naked down my local highstreet  :P I am sure many Japanese remember their market being at 38,900, that was in 1989. Now at 7800.

Q3 in 2009 is going to be good to us. If you have spare income (I know alot of people dont right now), try try try, to get in a mutual fund, or some safe blue chips. Let it sit.

Spare income? I am sticking it in a refit of my boat  :) and keeping the war chest stuffed with cash, just in case my revenue stream deterioates. If it stops I am going sailing for a couple of years  8) heck, I might go anyway! I figure I could be wrong, but if I miss out on 10 / 15% of a sustained upswing at the price of not being part of another 40% drop then it seems a fair trade off to me.

I say Q3. When it takes off, its going to be a heck of a ride. Don't miss out!

Q3 is it? Bearing in mind we are not even half way through the debacle as the effects of the banking meltdown have yet to really eat into the real economy you have a greater faith in our lords and masters than I do. And the gift of second sight  ;D My guesstimate is 5 years of flatlining with the occassional twitch of the corpse......if we are lucky and the bailout monies can still be borrowed on the industrial scale needed. Paying it all back is one for the Kids and possibly the Grandkids to worry about  :P Along the way I see some "good" companies going to the wall that would have normally (and in the past did) ride out a recession - it ain't just about choosing companies that will perform, it's about not choosing those that will cease to exist (at least for the current shareholders).

Not to say that their is no value out their (always is), but as always if folk are putting money into anything they have not researched and do not understand (stocks, real estate or boats!) then it is speculating and betting, not "investing"......and we can see the results of simple betting on things not understood - even by the proffessionals.

All of course IMO etc etc and don't blame me if folk sit out the biggest rally since Nuremberg  ;D


(Hey, nice use of the automatic change to "poop"  ;D).

You bring up really good points. Everyone knows the market is fickle. Consider a few facts though. We have FINALLY admited we are in a recession. That does alot of the mentality of investors. Traders, while playing a roll in the meltdown, were, in all accounts a small part of it. This bubble was already popping in 06. No one wanted to believe it. I do however, firmly belive that the 14k mark will hang around. Lets be honest, this is REALLY why the government stepped in to bail us out.

I, personally think, companies SHOULD have bankrupt. Why I belive this, is the fact that we wouldn't have had all this poop going on as long. Captial markets have a way of filling the empty spaces. Like a splash of cold water, it would have really stimulated the economy like a shot to the arm.

The reason this didn't happen? Simple, election year. The current administration has no reason to do anything major (and sitting out while companies imploded would have been). The BS you heard about the mortgage giants causing the country to fail is mostly lies. 80% of their bad debt is owned by China.

Anyway, I could go on, but im trying to keep this in the scope of what it means for alot of our members. As I said, most people are close to, or already retired. A few of us young bucks, sacrifice alot so we don't have to be 80 before we retire and HOPE there is social security left.

I see every day, people depleting their retirement funds because they fear the market. Im just trying to let everyone know, that it WILL recover. Don't jump the gun. Tighten the belt in other areas. Be patient.

As a side note, I will be waiting for that you tube video! =)