Missing Sailors

[Zen]

http://www.insidebayarea.com/sanmateocountytimes/ci_5124239

[Captain Smollett]

Sure hope this has a happy ending.  Maybe he just needed some additional time with his Mom before letting go.

Hard to imagine disappearing without a trace, but it does happen.

[Zen]

From a blog:

Jim Gray missing at sea
56 minutes ago by tharwood. Spam? Tags: Sailing, SAR

I am sitting with one of my all-time favorite CS books, Transaction Processing by Jim Gray and Andreas Reuter, in plain sight as it always is when I'm working. The case has been widely picked up by the general media, so I will post only a few thoughts that might add something.

Jim was reported overdue at 8:35 PM on Sunday. He was out for a day sail and was expected back in the late afternoon.

Distance from SF to the Fallaron Islands, his apparent destination, is 25 nm. Hull speed of the C&C 40 is 6.75 knots, so trip time at hull speed from Golden Gate to the islands would be about 4 hours.

What might have happened? Based on my offshore experience, I'd guess man overboard. Jim is said to have decades' sailing behind him, so he would have known to stay clipped on. Harnesses do (rarely) fail, though, and more frequently folks go for a few moments without a positive connection to the vessel. The difficulty of getting back on a moving vessel is also something I am familiar with; the C&C 40 looks to have a swim ladder on that reverse transom. I hope so, anyhow.

Collision with a freighter seems less likely with the excellent weather. Collision with a container is a more random event, since they float awash if they come off a ship. I have heard of boats suffering catastrophic damage from a container strike. If she filled and sank after hitting a container, that would be consistent with the lack of wreckage.

The C&C 40 was an excellent yacht, but they had a few nasty failure modes, "wet core balsa" among them. Equipment failure that would cause catastrophic damage seems unlikely. Equipment failure that left her unable to move or communicate?

Jim is said to be in good health and was apparently in good spirits when he was last heard from. Sudden health events do happen to us older guys, though.

Man overboard comes out of this looking most likely. If the ship were on autopilot and under sail she might be up to 400 miles from where she started.

If Jim is overboard, and assuming he's alive, how do we find him? The Coasties have not had any success. Re-tasking a satellite seems like a possibility, but how can we find the right needle in the haystack?  Joe Duck is on the job up in Oregon, which is now in the expanded search area.  There's a collective of amateur SAR kibitzers and occasional visits from professional SAR folks that merits some respect.

[AdriftAtSea]

Given the good weather, light winds, and such... it is either a MOB accident or a serious medical emergency that has caused the problem.  If the boat was on autopilot, given either, it could have gone a long way before anything happened to the boat.

From what I've read, the boat was in excellent shape, and he was a very skilled sailor.  But a MOB at his age, with the water temps as they are, it probably would have caused a heart attack...

I tend to doubt that it was a collision with a partially submerged object, given the proximity to San Francisco, which is a fairly busy port.

[Cmdr Pete]

Does seem most likely that the boat has kept going on autopilot until the batteries died. Sad

Usually, sailing mishaps don't get much media attention. Here is another National News story, following Ken Barnes.

Lots of non-sailors already think taking the boat out for a sail is some kind of dangerous extreme sport.

Yeah...I'm a regular Daredevil

[Captain Smollett]

Couple days old, now, but this story woke up the drones over on Slashdot.

Aside from the usual anti-MS attempts at humor, there is the normal dose of "he should have had" x or y (usually an EPIRB being x).  Here's one comment in response to that that I think has SOME good points.

From the dissenter:

In short, if you're depending on the Coast Guard for a rescue, you shouldn't be out there. Period.

It is an interesting counterpoing to the comments saying things like it is stupid to go out on the ocean alone.

Different strokes, and all that.  For some folks, going out alone on a sailboat is not the right thing.  That's the thing about personal freedom, though.  THEY don't HAVE to do.  I don't care for the attitude that NO ONE SHOULD, however.

[Norm]

At BSC, we have a C&C 40 in our fleet.  It is a remarkably tough boat. 

The idea that one could encounter a disaster of such magnitude that a C&C 40 sinks in less time than it takes to abandon ship and make a rescue-me signal is almost unimaginable.  Not impossible, just very hard to imagine all the things that would have to occur simulatneously.

Has there been a lot of whale activity in the area?  The Moby Dick theory is pretty weak, I admit.  These days being run down by a ship is possible far offshore but hard to imagine close to SF Bay.  Some ship transiting the area may... in weeks to come... be found with C&C40 dna on its bow.  Maybe?

A ship leaving Maine some years ago ran over a fishing boat in the fog off Cape Cod.  The collision was noticed by those aboard.  Scars to the paint and hull resulted in a conviction of the ship's master.

This will be interesting to follow. 

Best to all,
Norman

[Captain Smollett]

On Sunday, I went sailing on a boisterous Lake Wateree.  Winds were Force 6 in the gusts.  At no time did I feel in danger, though.  Little did I know that about ten miles south of me, a search was going on for a missing sailor.

The sailor, Gibson, was 'checked on' by the DNR around 1500 Saturday afternoon.  THe DNR officer claimed he had "all safety gear in place."  I think that means a PFD; I don't think that meant harness.  In any event, his boat, a ten footer, was later found washed up on shore capsized.  As of the news report on Monday, he had not been found.

One really odd thing about this, though, is that on the news (that my wife watched), they showed a picture of a MUCH LARGER boat - she said at least 20 feet.  It's like they just showed any old sailboat, along with that subliminal message "sailing is BAAAAD."

I'm saying a prayer for Mr. Gibson and his family.  At this point, after four days, this will not likely have a happy ending.  I hope I'm wrong.

[Cmdr Pete]

10 foot sailboat? Might be a Dyer Dink or Walker Bay

Sad News.

Peace

[AdriftAtSea]

I hope this turns out alright... but force six winds in a boat that small can be really challenging.  I don't know what the temps (air or water) were like, but this time of year, in most of the country, hypothermia is a serious risk... and that can kill pretty quickly.

[Captain Smollett]

Good point on the water temp; DNR reported it was 49 F at the time he went missing.

Like I said, not likely a happy ending.

[AdriftAtSea]

If he fell in...very likely that he could have had a hypothermia induced heart attack. 

[Captain Smollett]

Well, as feared, this did not have a happy ending.  Gibson's body was found 18 March not too far from where his boat was found.  He was not wearing a PFD and it took a while for him to float.

But the strange thing, to me, is the conflicting stories reported about what the DNR officer who last saw him alive said.

From the 6 March Report,

DNR says the boater, 46-year-old William Mark Gibson, was wearing a life vest when he was last seen.

Contrast this with the report given on 20 March:

The day Gibson went missing, DNR says he did have a life jacket in his boat, but at last check he was not wearing it.

Either somebody was misquoted or has changed their story about what they saw on 3 March.

Oh well.  Prayers for him and his family.

CJ, wasn't there recently a thread on TSBB where a bunch of folks said "I sail on an inland lake, so I don't need to wear a PFD"?  It does happen....

[BobW]

Yes, it does happen on lakes, and size doesn't necessarily matter.

5 or 6 years ago on Folsom Lake in Northern California, two guys were out sailing on a Venture 22.  It was mid-April and the water was still pretty chilly.  One of the guys stood up quickly in the cockpit, got dizzy, and fell overboard.  No PFD, and he was gone before the second guy could turn the boat around.  He was recovered about 6 weeks later.

It can - and does - happen on lakes.

[AdriftAtSea]

Not wearing PFD in a small boat out in heavy winds... not a great idea, especially in colder weather.  Sorry to hear it turned out badly, but I'm not surprised.

[Captain Smollett]

One thing I've notice here on SailFar is that we sometimes get a little "high and mighty" about the smaller boats we prefer.  I think our reasoning for prefering smaller is sound, but I wish to extend a caution against complacency.

Small boats are no more invincible than any other.

9m ketch missing, crew presumed dead, on passage from HI to Vancouver

I've read rumors that the boat was not in proper condition for a passage, much less the NE Pacific in early winter, but these comments were not sourced.

The article also mentions two other missing boats, but not their sizes.  Let's keep these sailors in mind, and try not to get too holier than thou about ANYBODY lost sea (or even just having problems).

Peace be with you, Chris and Courtenay.

[AdriftAtSea]

Yes, Takaroa II is long overdue, and their expected passage would have taken them through at least a couple bad storms off the west coast... It isn't looking very hopeful at this point. In one of the posted stories about Takaroa II, the boat was reported to be having some problems with the hatches not sealing and some damage to their communications equipment—VHF radio IIRC. 

When I first hear about them being missing I was more hopeful, but if they were having troubles with the sealing the hatches, then it is very likely that the boat downflooded if it got knocked down.