I hope everyone on the east coast is out of the way of hurricane Irene. Looks like it could get nasty there. Keep us up to date on how it goes.
Looks to be strong-ish TS conditions in the forecast for us, 40 knots with gusts in the low 50's.
(http://i128.photobucket.com/albums/p199/LewisAcid/A30/irene_01.png)
(http://i128.photobucket.com/albums/p199/LewisAcid/A30/irene_02.png)
Luckily this year, with last year's experience with Earl, I am insulating myself from the dockside hysteria. That poop gets old.
Our thoughts and prayers go to all along the coast...keep 'em battened down.
Tehani is tucked up a little creek, on a private dock with 75 feet of fetch east, north and west. Got atleast 8 pilings to tie to and no other boats to worry about.
The creek is up a bay, then up a river. A better spot could not be found, other than maybe on the Gulf coast ;D
Good to hear!
The "eye" would be passing over Manjack from about 5pm to now. Not sure what things will look like tomorrow....but I'm betting there will be big changes.
An update from my AO:
As of the 8 am discussion today, we were still looking good. I was planning to stay put barring a mandatory order from the marina (which in the past they have not given unless things were going to get VERY bad).
Alas, everything changed with the mid-day updates. We are now in the cross hairs.
The NHC forecast tracks seem to show landfall somewhere on the Banks between Cape Lookout and Hatteras. That's close enough for my taste, but everything has been shifting back westward all day (and the discussions now say they are drawing the official along the EASTERN edge of the models).
Um, enter the second piece of the puzzle. A friend from MCAS Cherry Point called today and told me all the military wx guys are calling for landfall between Emerald Isle and Morehead City...notable western of the NHC track and puts us that much closer to the eye.
I know quite a few of the military guys/families are evac-ing inland.
Upshot:
8 am this morning, 39 knots was our max predicted wind for 2 pm Saturday.
This afternoon, we are now in the 61 knot band and WAY closer to the center of things, maxing at 5 pm. This is not taking into account the military shift, just based on NHC.
NHC is predicting about a 70% chance for us to get sustained 50 knots (gusts around 70-75), and that will last a few hours.
I'm moving the boat out of the marina tomorrow morning, I don't have a true hidey hole, but I do have a spot that is reasonably well protected from the northeasterly we are expecting.
We are staying ashore and will update as possible.
I stripped the boat today, doubled the dock lines, and pretty much prepared as best I could. The mood at the marina was quite subdued, but purposeful. It looks like about half the boats haven't started preps, yet, though. The storm shouldn't hit us until late Saturday, last I heard. This could be bad. Maybe real bad.
My marina is in a nice little hurricane hole, and is theoretically protected from the worst of the storm surge. Pretty much everyone is planning on riding out the storm in the water, at the docks. The marina personnel are confident. We'll see if this is the best choice or not in a couple days.
John,
THanks for the PM.
I just finished a delivery from Tampa to New Bern (right into harm's way). The owner has begged me to come back so I will fly out to Raleigh at first light tomorrow.
I went to WM abd bought a big ol fortress (gonna have fun getting it on the plane).... and lots of line.
Flying into Raleigh (in case they close New Bern early)... should be there by 2 tomorrw.
Quote from: s/v Faith on August 25, 2011, 11:22:26 PM
Flying into Raleigh (in case they close New Bern early)... should be there by 2 tomorrw.
Give me a call either when you get here, or if you can enroute from Raleigh. I should be done with what I'm going to do by then.
(And you have a place to stay if you need it...B was talking about pitching a tent in the back yard of this place anyway, just to see what the neighbors would say ;D ).
Frankie - I didn't even think about your new house (and my loft apartment therein ;D) - I really hope it made it through this in good shape! I shot out an email to Connie yesterday, I think they may have gotten hit pretty hard there, what with the low elevation and the relatively large surge for the Bahamas. Keepin my fingers crossed, though, for both of you!
Smollett, Adam, CJ, and all of my other sailFar friends in or near the path - best of luck to you! I'll be thinking about you all. Button up well! Then just pretend you're in a nasty, nasty squall that has finally pushed you around the Horn at last!
I doubt your sea state will match those conditions, even if the wind does. So that's something to be thankful about, right? ;D
Good Luck Smollett and Craig,
QuoteAnd you have a place to stay if you need it...B was talking about pitching a tent
Pretty optimistic I would say ;)
And best hopes going out to all of you out there.
Dang Frank let's hope you don't have to remodel already, (of course if you do, a second guest room would be in order I believe ;) )
Quote from: Captain Smollett on August 25, 2011, 11:25:26 PM
Quote from: s/v Faith on August 25, 2011, 11:22:26 PM
Flying into Raleigh (in case they close New Bern early)... should be there by 2 tomorrw.
Give me a call either when you get here, or if you can enroute from Raleigh. I should be done with what I'm going to do by then.
(And you have a place to stay if you need it...B was talking about pitching a tent in the back yard of this place anyway, just to see what the neighbors would say ;D ).
I suspect I will either sleep onboard, (if in the slip) or spend the night running the motor against the wind (if I take it out to the anchorage).....
... either way I suspect it is going to be a long night.
Also hoping for the best for all of you. Keep safe.
Craig -
Please keep the following in mind:
1) It ain't yer boat.
2) *Their* boat is replaceable, and likely insured in some way (if no other than by their affluence).
3) The marina docks will hold together long enough for you to 'abandon ship' safely, if need be.
I hope they are paying you very well! I have some friends who did the 'motors & into the wind' thing with a 55' Hatteras sportfisherman in St. Thomas during Hugo. They were one of a very few boats left afloat afterwards, and only because their last line of 3/4" 3-strand held on long enough with only 2 strands intact. The other 3 or 4 parted. There were 2 of them aboard, and they stayed awake the entire night tending lines and such, and consider themselves very lucky to this day. They have told me how they saw "cruising" cats tumbling away downwind that night...
If you leave the marina, fer Pete's sake don't get into open roads by yourself - find a hidey hole.
Last - Do the easy thing. And Good Luck! Keep us posted.
Brunswick Co., NC radar at 6:35AM below...
Well, it looks like most of the upper Chesapeake will avoid the worst of the Hurricane, as we will be on the "good" side of rotation. Which isn't to say that the conditions are going to be good. Currently (and subject to the storm taking a detour) we are looking to expect NE wind of 40-50 knots, 70 MPH gusts, 8 inches of rain, possible storm surge of three feet or so.
The way I understand these things, with the eye passing to the east of us, the NE winds will be blowing water out of the bay, not in, so maybe (?) flooding won't be too big an issue?
Tehani is secured with 8 lines, to 6 different pilings and a dock. She should be fine.
If it looks really bad tomorrow noon, I'll split I suppose, although I hate leaving the boat. But the guesses are improving for here.
Quote from: CapnK on August 26, 2011, 06:57:56 AM
If you leave the marina,- find a hidey hole.
He really cannot get anywhere.
Up the Trent from him is a fixed bridge he cannot clear, and out into the Neuse, the 16 ft draw bridge is going to cease opening operations (unsafe to open above certain wind speed) about the time he arrives here.
He's pretty much stuck where he's at. He could anchor out off the marina or just the other side of the railroad bridge, but...well, roll your dice and choose your bet vs staying in the slip.
I just got back from moving my boat 4 miles up the Trent. Anticipating most of the big winds (current predictions are 3-4 hours at least of sustained 50-60 knots, with gusts in the mid 70's) from the NE and N, I anchored along a stretch where the river runs along NW - SE. I'm tucked away in about 8 feet of water with about 120 ft out on my primary; second anchor is almost due west of the primary (hard to set with the wind currently blowing from the east), with considerably less scope (but still 7 or 8 to one), but I added a 25 lb kellet (which will be more of a sentinel if that line starts to work for a living) 10 or 12 feet up from the anchor.
The anchors themselves are 35 lb Manson for primary and 33 lb S-L Claw for secondary. They are in a "V" off the bow on independent rodes and separate cleats. This will be a good test of my new 12" Herreschoff's and my cleat mounting technique/ability.
Old dishrags and heavy duty tape comprise my attempt at chafe protection. We shall see.
The only "loose" things on deck are two fenders that are tied to lines in turn secured to cleats. These I hope will act as bouy's to mark the hull position if she happens to sink. They are in the cockpit sole.
Most the 'big' powerboats I saw were anchored with a very similar strategy to mine. #2 anchor rodes were slack since we are presently on an East wind, but the big stuff will be 90-ish degrees more to the north.
I saw one with both his anchors out holding the boat in position now. I hope the one that gets the full load when the shift happens is up to the task. He's over a mile from me (and a around a bend).
Another had two from the bow but in Bahamiam Moor configuration...180 degrees from each other on an E-W line. That's probably not a bad lie, either, and I thought of doing it that way myself.
If anyone wants to critique my technique, please do so, but I ask that you wait until AFTER the storm. :) PLEASE don't rattle what bit of faith I have in the system at present. It's not like I feel she's 90+% bombproof, but the best I could do this go around (my confidence level is quite a bit lower than 90%, but oh well...she's out of the marina where at least she has a chance).
Also, let's chalk one up to sailfar size boats and older, low aspect rigs. I cleared (with feet to spare) the 45 ft fixed bridge to have more options available to me compared to other, similar LOA vessels with higher aspect ratios that could NOT clear the bridge, and they had not choice but to stay put in marina or run out the opening bridge, into the BIG river and find a hole or boatyard to haul.
Small boats rock.Waiting til the XO gets off work to decide if we are heading to Raleigh. Right now, given data I have at the moment, leaning toward staying here.
Rather the Brunswick Co. radar, I'm watching Cartaret (Newport/Morehead NWS). This is pretty close to where landfall is expected.
(image will update...to lazy and tired at the moment to save an image, photobucket and post).
(http://icons-ecast.wunderground.com/data/nids/MHX19_thumb_t.jpg)
There's my update from 20-30 or so miles from where the eye is expected to "hit" land. ;)
Edit: Just wanted to add for those not familiar with the NC Coast and where we are in relation to the storm - on the radar map, if you find the river that looks like a check mark, that's the Neuse. New Bern is approximately at the end, and you can just make out the little "tick" mark where the Trent is wide enough to show in this scale.
We are still setting here on the SC/NC line with Samara secured to a floating dock and stripped of everything. the rains have started with the winds picking up and the storm is still 20 hours out. The only thing I am worried about is not everybody at the marina is prepared, thinking we are not going to get hit.
We are lucky the in laws live just a few miles from the marina.
my prayers go out to all
QuoteThe way I understand these things, with the eye passing to the east of us, the NE winds will be blowing water out of the bay, not in, so maybe (?) flooding won't be too big an issue?
Not necessarily true Adam, according to Jeff Masters;
QuoteHowever, since Irene is such a huge storm--tropical storm force winds extend out up to 290 miles from the center--it has set a massive amount of the ocean's surface in motion, which will cause a much larger storm surge than the winds would suggest. At 9:30am EDT this morning, a wind analysis from NOAA/HRD (Figure 1) indicated that the potential storm surge damage from Irene rated a 5.1 on a scale of 0 to 6. This is equivalent to the storm surge a typical Category 4 hurricane would have. While this damage potential should gradually decline as Irene moves northwards and weakens, we can still expect a storm surge one full Saffir-Simpson Category higher than Irene's winds. Since tides are at their highest levels of the month this weekend due to the new moon, storm surge flooding will be at a maximum during the high tidal cycles that will occur at 8 pm Saturday night and 8 am Sunday morning.
Quote from: Tim on August 26, 2011, 01:50:30 PM
Not necessarily true Adam, according to Jeff Masters;
Jeff Masters writes a good piece and I do like his site overall...but...
I think that last bit is sensationalist poop.
We'll see in two days who's right...the NHC and USMC wx forecasters, or blogger Jeff with web hits to sell.
Quote from: Captain Smollett on August 26, 2011, 02:07:52 PM
Quote from: Tim on August 26, 2011, 01:50:30 PM
Not necessarily true Adam, according to Jeff Masters;
Jeff Masters writes a good piece and I do like his site overall...but...
I think that last bit is sensationalist poop.
We'll see in two days who's right...the NHC and USMC wx forecasters, or blogger Jeff with web hits to sell.
that may be true John, but even the NHC gives a pretty strong warning;
QuoteSTORM SURGE...AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER
LEVELS BY AS MUCH AS 6 TO 11 FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL IN THE
HURRICANE WARNING AREA IN NORTH CAROLINA...INCLUDING THE ALBEMARLE
AND PAMLICO SOUNDS. STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY AS MUCH
AS 4 TO 8 FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL OVER SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE
CHESAPEAKE BAY...INCLUDING TRIBUTARIES...AND THE EASTERN SHORE OF
THE DELMARVA PENINSULA. STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY AS
MUCH AS 3 TO 6 FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL ALONG THE JERSEY SHORE.
NEAR THE COAST...THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE...
DESTRUCTIVE...AND LIFE-THREATENING WAVES.
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCPAT4+shtml/251156.shtml
and of course this is with the caveat that I am on the other side of the continent and don't know squat about Hurricanes or your weather at all.
Smollett -
It'll never work...er, um, sounds great!
;D
In all seriousness, it does sound like you are as good as you can get, and though I hope it was some cleverness that won't be checked for functionality, I like the fenders in the cockpit idea. :)
So Craig is at New Bern Marina?
Nothing is going to happen here. Why? Because I am as prepared as possible... ::)
Mario - y'all are up in Lil River, by town, right? Not on the ICW? I think you'll be way fine there.
Adam - go hang a sign on your boat: "Chuck Norris's Favorite Boat". That oughta do it... ;D
CJ - I have a birthday gift from my bro, 12 yr old, 5x distilled Zaya rum. I'll hoist one to ya later tonight! :D
QuoteCJ - I have a birthday gift from my bro, 12 yr old, 5x distilled Zaya rum. I'll hoist one to ya later tonight! Cheesy
::) Smug as a bug in a rug ;D :P
Just for the fun of the exercise, let's dissect the two reports.
NHC; Data...storm surge levels expected for specific regions. This I can use to plan, and lacks 'emotional punch' of labeling things as "big" or "bigger" or "biggest."
Masters: CAT 4 like storm surge!
There is not one single piece of usable data in that whole quote. The closest is the
Quote
a wind analysis from NOAA/HRD (Figure 1) indicated that the potential storm surge damage from Irene rated a 5.1 on a scale of 0 to 6.
Which includes the arbitrary scale of 0-6 and the further subjective comparison of 'what a Cat 4 WOULD HAVE.'
Maybe no one except me will see the difference in these two approaches to presentation of information, but I maintain that "cold data" is far more useful than sensationalizing to make things sound bigger than they are.
The 5.1...the largest surges...are for the Sounds, which is NOT the same thing as 20 miles up river (for us) or up bay (for Adam)...the Sounds are essentially very shoal-ey bits of the open ocean with a tiny little 'reef' of a sandbar breaking up the 'normal' surf.
Focusing on the surge in the sounds is like saying the eyewall offshore has 40 foot seas...ergo, we will get at least a 20 ft surge. That might be true FOR THE SOUNDS, but NOT for "inland."
I'm not trying to be argumentative, but during weeks like this I spend a CRAZY amount of energy fighting this sensationalism and trying to get my own friends and (extended) family to LOOK AT REAL DATA.
Another example:
My sister called a bit ago saying she read in her local paper (100 miles inland) that Irene is "the size of Katrina."
Uh, no. Not even close.
Okay, maybe they both cover the same geographical area (maybe), but come on...a glancing blow from a Cat 2 that is moving 12-15 knots (and speeding up) is NOT that same thing as was Katrina was...by a LONG shot.
The reference to Katrina was an emotional appeal...one form of logical fallacy.
It brings NOTHING to the analysis dealing with a storm like this requires. I'd just assume they shut up and not say anything.
Local weatherman: "we may get 90 mph winds." Yes, me MAY. There's about a 2% chance of that, by my read.
Oh wait, maybe he's looking at GUSTS. Still...maybe 5-10%.
heck, we only have a 40% chance of getting the 64 knots required to call it "hurricane" conditions.
There's only a 60% chance of getting 50 knot winds (strong TS).
The "official" forecast for us, right here, is 60 knots with gusts in the low-mid 70's.
Where the heck does he get this 90 mph poop from? His butt?
It's an easy sell when you assume your audience knows nothing of statistics and what they mean for making predictions/forecasts.
The key word there is "sell." He has advertisers to keep happy, and they are only happy if people watch HIM rather than the other guy. They quickly get into little 'wars' regarding who can paint the scariest picture and still maintain some semblance of scientific integrity (by some measure).
I leave you with this horse squeeze from West Palm Beach several days ago:
"Hurricane Irene is just BLOWING UP!"
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WT1qF9Lso2s
Uh...going from Cat 1 to Cat 2 in a very normal fashion (after getting back over water) and AS PREDICTED for over 12 hours by NHC is NOT 'blowing up."
Geez. Just make it stop.
Soapbox off now, and I'll go back to listening to the intermittent showers.
Quote from: CapnK on August 26, 2011, 02:33:01 PM
I like the fenders in the cockpit idea. :)
So Craig is at New Bern Marina?
As I got my feet back on Terra firma, I realized that big aluminum stick would be a pretty good indicator, too. ;D Oh well. So much for thinking on one's feet (and I had to do something with the fenders...they were dirty and I did not want to put them below).
Craig's not here yet...but due to arrive in about an hour or less. The marina he's working from is the one across the river from 'mine,'...the New Bern Grand, aka The Hilton Hotel Marina (formerly The Sheraton, before that...well, whatever).
I just returned from Oriential, (Smith Creek). I had 2 more pilings put in several weeks ago, so I have 4 pilings and Tideminders tied on the weather side, also I deployed and set an anchor on that side. On the pier side I ran lines from the pilings I am tied to out around some trees on shore. All sails have been removed. I was feeling pertty good until just before I left a 50 ft trawler came in and anchored about 250 feet Northeast of me now I figure about a 50/50 chance
Quote from: Sid T on August 26, 2011, 03:30:48 PMI was feeling pertty good until just before I left a 50 ft trawler came in and anchored about 250 feet Northeast of me now I figure about a 50/50 chance
Bastage... >:(
You should dinghy over and ask for their insurance papers. ;D
I am way up the Chesapeake, on a creek, off a river, that is protected by an island. I am not expecting much surge where I am, though, it is entirely possible that high tide will be two or three feet higher than normal. My biggest concern is that low tide will be VERY low on Sunday, and since I don't have a lot of surplus depth in my slip, I will likely be aground. If I list to port, all is good as there is nothing in the three slips to my left. If I list to starboard, and the boat in THAT slip lists to port, our masts are gonna be making some music.
But, then again, Mother Nature really is making a female dog of herself this week. Who knows what will happen in the end.
I did take a long time standing in the cockpit recording their name and port so they could see what I was doing.
Irene has officially broken teh internets in SC.
Maybe too much rain got into the tubes...
Currently some gusts around 50 knots, sustained seems about mid 30's to me. (The gusts I quote were from a measurements published on the 'Net).
Previous post was via phone.
We've turned the corner here - North eyewall is almost due East, so the wind is now coming from shore (instead of down-river w/1.5miles fetch), and rain is steady but fairly light. Winds are stronger than they were earlier, but with this direction that mostly just means noise.
Hope the rest of y'all make it 'round the corner as well as we have... :)
On edit: Also, if it's not just a wobble I'm seeing, it appears that there is an easterly trend to the track that puts the eye landing a bit more over towards Shackleford Banks/Ocracoke, instead of Morehead/Beaufort. I'll keep my fingers crossed that this is so!
I'm feeling more confident about this storm, now. With only a 1-3 foot storm surge predicted for Baltimore (and likely less, if any, for my little creek), I'm fairly confident that I'll have a boat to use on my little sailing vacation starting next weekend. The storm is weakening a bit, and tracking in a direction which is beneficial to me (though not those on the Atlantic coast).
Happened to wake up about 30 min ago and power eas on...saw some bright blue flashes to ne and power is out. Guess it will be til next week til we get it back.
Really just cranking up here. Rain started bout 0300, wind at 0600.
Rain fairly heavy in bbands, then light. Wind around 20-25 but hard to say for sure cause I'm screened by trees all around.
Things are looking better for sure- intensity forecasts way down. Norfolk NAS reporting winds at 29. Not bad.
No internet except Iphone.
Ooops- power just quit. No more fan >:(
Sitting here all high and dry inland, I'm wishing everyone a safe anchorage through this. The sanest comparisons I've seen in the news was to Gloria, which although small, did a fair bit of damage. May all y'all be spared.
I think the biggest part of the media hyperventilation comes from the probable hit on New York City... like hot sauce, what does NYC know about hurricanes? Best wishes to all.
just remember that everyone over there can send us some of that rain. looks like it will be between 105 and 110 here today we haven't had a real rain since may and the lake is down about 16+ feet cant get the boat out. so the weather goes from one extreme to another.
http://www.towndock.net/ is doing a good job of staying up with pictures
Thx for the link, Tim. They got it worse than we did, for sure.
Looks like Smollet is behind the eye now...
Fair'd well here, lots of wind and rain, nothing more then small tree limbs down. Well there is one 25' boat that flipped and sank.
I'm stuck at work for the duration of the storm; but I found a streaming video feed of my marina. THings look windy; but ok. Except that it is a few minutes away from high tide and the video looks like it is low tide.
Sadly, I can't see my boat in the feed. :-(
Except for a bunch of rain, looks to be pretty much over here. The eye is almost abeam of me now. Storm surge was about 2-2 1/2 feet. Not to real bad.
I'm going to bed- been a long day
Glad to hear, I really appreciate you checking in.
John/Smollett sent me a text. His boat is fine - some fellows said they'd watched her and it was "amazing".
...and he and family are fine, too. :D
They only have cell phone right now, no power for internet.
He wrote: "We got hammered on other side of town...true cat 1 style damage...not surprising since eye was 10-20 (miles) to east. Prolly 50-55 at peak with 2-3 hours of gusts high 60s-70s. Could have been worse, but bad enough. ;) "
-----
In related news: Y'all ever hear of the Blue Ghost of the Chesapeake? He only comes around during tropical storms and hurricanes. Haunts yer beer or liquor locker. Scary stuff.
Thanks Capn, LMAO You know that Purple Ghost Blue Ghost has been bringing weather with him wherever he goes ;)
Just got an update from Bill on Manjack. He took his skiff up and reports my lil cottage is OK. All storm shutters still on, no signs of exterior damage at all. The water came up and passed under the cottage but he reports even the lawn looks OK. Big relief !! After the eye passed...the wind would have been pounding straight in on it. I had visions of lost beach and cottage.
Quote from: Tim on August 27, 2011, 11:48:46 PM
Thanks Capn, LMAO You know that Purple Ghost Blue Ghost has been bringing weather with him wherever he goes ;)
LOL- That's what Laura said. She's in south Texas. People been accusing her but she said "Now we know- hurricane and an earthquake and you're on the boat alone!!"
Good to hear, Frank and CJ. Hope all else north of us are doing fine. Cell still very spotty, so gaelic sea out for now.
Glad to hear you guys weathered the storm and are ok!
Godot came through beautifully. Not a scratch, and only a few cups full of water made it in through some known deck leaks. I'm told that at low tide the water was so far out that the boat was standing on her keel with the hull clear of the water. Apparently I guessed right about how tight to make the docklines, as she just stood straight up and happy. And for once, I was glad that I'm not on a floating dock.
Now it's time to get the boom, sails, and miscellaneous gear out of my dining room and back onto the boat. I feel like sailing! Well, after a nap.
Great to hear!
I just got back from Oriental. A true miracle, my boat,Moku, is in good shape. Missing a few boards in the pier. All around is a mess with trash and floatsom. There was even a boat that had dragged anchor and crossed over my pier to the back side he was ok also. the water was still high enough that we were able to get it out. Some were not so lucky, my heart goes out to them.
Power just came on....will post more details of storm later when inet comes back up...
my boat lives..lol. I went and stripped everything from the ol gal, and the storm blew in, picked her up 6' over the pillings, then set her back in to her slip. all is well.
I hope everyone else is having it as good as I did.