sailFar.net

Cruisin' Threads => sailFar.net Discussion => Topic started by: Tim on October 26, 2012, 11:57:12 AM

Title: H. Sandy
Post by: Tim on October 26, 2012, 11:57:12 AM
Hoping this kind of prediction is overblown, but all my friends out there take care just in case.

http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/article.html
Title: Re: H. Sandy
Post by: tomwatt on October 26, 2012, 02:42:35 PM
Likewise, hoping all our litle brood of SailFarers, their friends & family & neighbors remain safe. Predictors for an off-the-charts storm are disconcerting. There were some big, bad storms up the coast in the 19th century that caused a lot of damage & killed many... hopefully this one won't go that route.
Title: Re: H. Sandy
Post by: s/v Faith on October 26, 2012, 03:00:33 PM
Maybe i am missing something, but this 'event' seems mostly to be about the threat to the coast that does not normally get much hurricane activity.

Sandy is a cat 1 hurricane, which is not normally a big concern when it is headed for FL, SC, or any of the Gulf states (other then Lousianna)  :-\

It seems to me that this one is news because of the threat to NY.

BTW, I was in the North Atlantic during the 'Storm of the Century' so I understand frontal convergence....

it just seems to me that they are 'Frankenhyping' this one.

Hope I am right for all in her path anyway.

Title: Re: H. Sandy
Post by: Tim on October 26, 2012, 06:06:39 PM
Yes, I think the threat is a large storm surge in areas not at all prepared for it.
Title: Re: H. Sandy
Post by: CapnK on October 26, 2012, 07:48:42 PM
Glass half full: There should be some cool "large swells in places you don't normally see such" video coming from this. ;)

I think that the media is gonna waaaay overhype this since it will happen in *their* backyard for once, and that hyping will compound the real effects it is going to have... That said, hopefully the infrastructure in the big cities is up to the task, and we won't see people going crazy and rioting and looting and such.

WRT "Frankenhyping" - Don't lat the WU blogs get you down. :) I have long been a member and daily visitor of WU, and like anyone who is a regular on his blog, can tell you that Dr. Jeff is a very vocal proponent of his particular beliefs, sometimes to the point of sensationalism.
But he owns the place, so if he wants to use it as a bully pulpit, then I reckon he has every right to do so - but do be aware of the fact that it is what it is.
I've learned to temper what I read there with information from other sources in order to try and form an objective view. :)

Local Sandy report: We have been getting wind here for 2 days now, northerlies, with a whole lotta gusts up into the high teens/pushing 20 right now. Tomorrow is supposed to bring 30-40 and gusts to 50. I plan to take the little stink potter and go down and check out the ocean tomorrow and Sunday, see if we are getting any big ground swell off of Sandy. I'll see if I can get some of that "cool video" to post - but not if it is too risky. :)
Title: Re: H. Sandy
Post by: CapnK on October 28, 2012, 05:15:22 PM
Well, the media has sure made an impression. Gizmodo is asking readers to send in their best "Frankenstorm" shots (http://gizmodo.com/5955574/lets-see-your-best-photos-of-the-impending-frankenstorm). Below is just one example of many similar, it is a Target grocery store in NJ...

(http://img.gawkerassets.com/img/183kye0ndthp1jpg/original.jpg)
Title: Re: H. Sandy
Post by: Oldrig on October 28, 2012, 05:38:52 PM
I tend to agree about the media hype, but this does look kind of threatening.

I just got back from Cape Cod, where I moved my boat to a heavy mooring at a sheltered yard, and stripped everything but the rigging (running and standing) from her. They're expecting a heavy storm surge on the south coast of Cape Cod, and NHS is still posting a warning for "hurricane-force winds."

Best wishes to those in the Chesapeake and mid-Atlantic regions, where there is even a chance of snow in West Virginia. I expect the most long-lasting problems here in the Northeast will come from the totally incompetent, bottom-line-driven utilities, which have to rely on crews of temps brought in from all over, because they have let all their experienced local linemen go. Last year, we were without power for four days, while the next town over, which has a municipally-owned power company, was down for three hours.

Sorry for the rant. Best wishes to all in Sandy's path. Prayers, too.

--Joe
Title: Re: H. Sandy
Post by: Tim on October 28, 2012, 07:39:07 PM
Yep Joe, hyped or not there is going to be some damage. Hoping for the best, take care all.
Title: Re: H. Sandy
Post by: SalientAngle on October 29, 2012, 11:21:20 AM
the s/v Bounty tall ship rescue is on going, conflicting reports, but, the Bounty was on the market... http://webcache.googleusercontent.com/search?q=cache:l2FuPk4XT1oJ:easternyachts.com/bounty/specifications.htm+&cd=2&hl=en&ct=clnk&gl=us&client=firefox-a (http://webcache.googleusercontent.com/search?q=cache:l2FuPk4XT1oJ:easternyachts.com/bounty/specifications.htm+&cd=2&hl=en&ct=clnk&gl=us&client=firefox-a)
Title: Re: H. Sandy
Post by: SalientAngle on October 29, 2012, 11:25:47 AM


    Eternal Father, Strong to save,
    Whose arm hath bound the restless wave,
    Who bid'st the mighty Ocean deep
    Its own appointed limits keep;
    O hear us when we cry to thee,
    for those in peril on the sea.

    O Christ! Whose voice the waters heard
    And hushed their raging at Thy word,
    Who walked'st on the foaming deep,
    and calm amidst its rage didst sleep;
    Oh hear us when we cry to Thee
    For those in peril on the sea!

    Most Holy spirit! Who didst brood
    Upon the chaos dark and rude,
    And bid its angry tumult cease,
    And give, for wild confusion, peace;
    Oh, hear us when we cry to Thee
    For those in peril on the sea!

    O Trinity of love and power!
    Our brethren shield in danger's hour;
    From rock and tempest, fire and foe,
    Protect them wheresoe'er they go;
    Thus evermore shall rise to Thee,
    Glad hymns of praise from land and sea.
Title: Re: H. Sandy
Post by: SalientAngle on October 29, 2012, 11:45:03 AM
Bounty was being operated as a "sea school"
http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/nova-scotia/story/2012/10/29/ns-hms-bounty-hurricane-sandy.html (http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/nova-scotia/story/2012/10/29/ns-hms-bounty-hurricane-sandy.html)
Title: Re: H. Sandy
Post by: CapnK on October 29, 2012, 03:46:55 PM
Bad, bad decision making there on the Bounty, & the loss of the ship is a damned shame, too. Reports that I've seen have the Captain as being one of the 2 souls who've been lost as a result. God be with them, and the survivors. It really needn't have happened at all, more's the shame...

Best wishes and prayers for those in the path; let's hope the only other losses are material in nature.

Pretty dramatic USCG video of some of the rescues:
http://static.dvidshub.net/media/video/1210/DOD_100600374/DOD_100600374-366x274-300k.mp4
Title: Re: H. Sandy
Post by: Tim on October 29, 2012, 03:53:31 PM
That USCG video is amazing, gawd I hope I never get to see that in person
Title: Re: H. Sandy
Post by: Oldrig on October 29, 2012, 04:14:11 PM
Amazing video, Kurt. Thanks for posting.

Those rescue swimmers are the most heroic people around today. And the 'copter crews, too.

Talk about self-sacrifice!
Title: Re: H. Sandy
Post by: Tim on October 29, 2012, 04:58:41 PM
How you holding up Joe?
Title: Re: H. Sandy
Post by: SalientAngle on October 29, 2012, 05:11:16 PM
s/v Bounty documentation
http://www.st.nmfs.noaa.gov/pls/webpls/cgv_pkg.vessel_id_list?vessel_id_in=960956 (http://www.st.nmfs.noaa.gov/pls/webpls/cgv_pkg.vessel_id_list?vessel_id_in=960956)

WDD9114 FCC liicense information
http://wireless2.fcc.gov/UlsApp/UlsSearch/license.jsp?licKey=2935665 (http://wireless2.fcc.gov/UlsApp/UlsSearch/license.jsp?licKey=2935665)
Title: Re: H. Sandy
Post by: SalientAngle on October 29, 2012, 05:18:54 PM
sailwx ship track info for WDD9114 bounty...
http://www.sailwx.info/shiptrack/shipposition.phtml?call=WDD9114 (http://www.sailwx.info/shiptrack/shipposition.phtml?call=WDD9114)
Title: Re: H. Sandy
Post by: CapnK on October 29, 2012, 07:50:41 PM
I know some areas had to have been hit hard, but right now I am listening/watching to the weather.com stream, and the announcer guy and Jim Cantore (who's at Battery Park, NYC) are trying ***really, really hard*** to make the effects so far of the "superstorm" live up to the hype they have been giving it, but based on the scene there, it sure is not very convincing. :)

I mean, there's no wind there to speak of (Cantore couldn't even feel enough to give it a direction), the water is just over the top of the wall, but during the last ten minutes they've managed to convince each other that it is going to rise 1- no 2! - no 3! feet when the wind goes east/southeast...

I hope that the scene there is by and large indicative of the rest of the NE, and that things overall are not nearly as bad as they could have/were supposed to be.

(On Edit: 45 minutes, water level has risen about 6" from what I can see - from Cantores calves to (almost) his knees. :) )
Title: Re: H. Sandy
Post by: Captain Smollett on October 29, 2012, 09:57:43 PM
I am so sick of the hype they give these storms.  As a scientist, I find it incredibly offensive.

My inland BiL and I spoke on the phone today, and he asked me how things were here.  When I told him pretty much nothing going on (we got a little rain over the weekend and our highest wind GUST was about 30 knots at 4 am Sunday morning), he said they were worried because that's NOT how his local news was reporting it.

He said they were reporting that we were essentially getting slammed.  Eh, what?

As soon as I heard the "Frankenstorm" BS last week, I knew I had to tune it out.  This is just out of hand.  It's NOT science.

The only guys I can tell are doing real science on these storms anymore are the NHC boys themselves.  And, here's what they had to say this even at 17:00:

Quote

THE CONVECTIVE STRUCTURE OF SANDY HAS DETERIORATED TODAY...EVEN AS
THE CENTRAL PRESSURE HAS CONTINUED TO SLOWLY FALL...SUGGESTING THAT
THE CONVECTION IS NO LONGER DRIVING THE BUS.  THE INTENSIFICATION
OBSERVED THIS MORNING WAS ASSOCIATED WITH STRONG WINDS OCCURRING TO
THE SOUTHWEST OF THE CENTER...OUTSIDE OF THE CENTRAL CORE...AND WAS
ALMOST CERTAINLY DUE TO BAROCLINIC FORCING.  IN ADDITION...AIRCRAFT
DATA INDICATE THAT THERE ARE STRONG TEMPERATURE CONTRASTS VERY NEAR
A MODEST RESIDUAL WARM CORE.  WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES THAT
SANDY IS BECOMING ABSORBED WITHIN A LARGE MID-LATITUDE CYCLONIC
CIRCULATION.
 ALL OF THESE CONSIDERATIONS LEAD US TO CONCLUDE THAT
THE MOST APPROPRIATE CLASSIFICATION AT ADVISORY TIME IS
EXTRATROPICAL.  HOWEVER...FOR CONTINUITY OF SERVICE NHC WILL
CONTINUE TO ISSUE ADVISORIES THROUGH LANDFALL.  A POST-STORM
ANALYSIS WILL RE-EXAMINE THE TIMING OF EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION.  

WE ANTICIPATES THAT THE LAST NHC ADVISORY ON SANDY WILL BE ISSUED AT
11 PM EDT TONIGHT. SINCE ALL COASTAL TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS HAVE
BEEN DISCONTINUED
...THERE WILL BE NO INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORIES
ISSUED BETWEEN NOW AND THE 11 PM NHC ADVISORY.


Now, does that sound like a "Frankenstorm?"  Those guys are the real experts...the guys with their necks on the line if THEIR interpretation of the data goes wrong and people get hurt because they underplayed an event.

The rest?  They are like leeches taking the NHC data (and forecast and discussion products) and milking it for ratings...nothing more.

Too, I'm trying to figure out why NC was a declared State of Emergency days before the dang storm even hit, and looking around, I'm wondering how in the HECK that could be even remotely justified.

I hope and pray it is just as underwhelming up north...those in the path of this EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE (not Hurricane) could face real damage.  I hope they don't.  But storm of the century, perfect storm (saw it called that in an article this morning), Frankenstorm?

Gah.  I feel like throwing up.  Excuse me.



[On Edit]:

Jeff Masters seems to have become among the biggest of the sell-outs.  No science left.  I cannot bring myself to read a word he writes.  I would suggest anyone that reads his tripe rethink it.

Go straight to the source...that's the best info.  NHC, NWS and NOAA.
Title: Re: H. Sandy
Post by: s/v Faith on October 29, 2012, 10:31:13 PM
Please John, do not hold back like this...   

  Let us all know how you really feel. 

:)


I was in your neck of the woods today, working on the boat I am taking to the BVI's next month.  I was running around working on the boat in the midst of the hysteria... I was actually aloft in the middle of this...   yea, I saw nothing I would not have sailed in here in New Bern.

Hope all up north fare as well (and the lost crew of the Bounty).
Title: Re: H. Sandy
Post by: CharlieJ on October 30, 2012, 12:59:39 AM
Just a few minutes ago hung up from a friend who lives in NYC, with a view of his marina. Director level of a major financial institute. Trained in crisis management

Boats ALMOST floated off pilings- missed by inches. Boat may have some damage, but is surviving

His building has water in ground floor, and over street outside-lives ON river. JUST lost power.

strongest winds so far- 76 knots in gusts.

No kidding- gonna be bad. Subways are flooded, which will take a long time to clear.  

NYSE is flooded.

His truck is flooded- told him to trade it soon.

So while they may be over hyping, it isn't gonna be pleasant to recover, and is gonna be a MAJOR economic disaster.

Also could have a good bit of bearing on the election. Many many people may be unable, or unwilling, to go vote. COULD have an effect.

Also talked to Graham Byrnes (B and B Yacht design ) on the Bay River, NC, just east of Capt Smollett- zero flooding there, but heavy rains, then. Little real problems though
Title: Re: H. Sandy
Post by: SalientAngle on October 30, 2012, 07:06:10 AM
(https://sphotos-a.xx.fbcdn.net/hphotos-snc6/282333_10151225058446051_1654642354_n.jpg)







Title: Re: H. Sandy
Post by: CapnK on October 30, 2012, 08:27:49 AM
Caution: Early AM, first-cuppa-joe philosophizing-of-a-sort below. Raw, rough, and unfinished... Probably not worth reading. :)

------------------

Sitting here listening to the post-storm reports on weather.com stream...

There's a word I need to describe myself, my thoughts, that's missing. The closest thing we have to it that I can think of is "misanthrope", but that's not right, because I don't hate mankind, at all. But I look at all of the devastation and problems caused by this storm, and the only reason they are such is not because of mankind, but because of *too much* mankind. Or too much mankind, all in one place.

We've gone crazy, overrunning our planet, and now when the planet is just doing the sort of things that planets do, have done for billions of years, all of the sudden it's major crisis and problems and tribulation, at least down here at the level of the walking talking monkeys who don't have much regard for anything other than getting the best food and toys and making more walking pink monkeys that will only need more and more from this planet, and it just seems to be some sort of collective madness, as if we are the runaway train of all species, bound for the edge, but so intent on enjoying the party in the dining car that we can't be bothered to look for the brakes...

I don't think we're responsible for the storm having Come Into Being (oh, the hubris!), maybe not even for it being as "big" or as "bad" as it was - it is just weather, after all, and we've only witnessed the smallest slice of what weather is or can do in our short time as a cognizant species here on the planet - but then we do live in a closed system, and if nothing else, the "devastation" is a result of "too much us", because the trees and sand dunes and little critters water- and land-borne all have done what we have to do for a whole lot longer than we can remember having to had do it, and that is to hunker down for a storm and then pick up the pieces afterwards and get back to our livings.

Mmmmm. It's too early to be channeling John D. McDonald, but ol' Travis knows what I'm talking about. He saw it happening 40 years ago, and made a point of calling it what it was back then.

QuoteI am wary of a lot of other things, such as plastic credit cards, payroll deductions, insurance programs, retirement benefits, savings accounts, Green Stamps, time clocks, newspapers, mortgages, sermons, miracle fabrics, deodorants, check lists, time payments, political parties, lending libraries, television, actresses, junior chambers of commerce, pageants, progress, and manifest destiny.

I am wary of the whole dreary deadening structured mess we have built into such a glittering top-heavy structure that there is nothing left to see but the glitter, and the brute routines of maintaining it."

"Top-heavy structure" indeed. Such that we are all witnessing it wobble right now. Let's hope for our sakes that it manages to stay upright for a while yet.
Title: Re: H. Sandy
Post by: Timbo on October 30, 2012, 09:01:27 AM
CapnK - One can get very depressed thinking about the madness of the society we live in.  It's nice to raise the sails and leave the insanity for a bit.  The principals of SailFar seem more important than ever.  The last thing us sailors need to do is to compromise our experience with nature and the elements with "Too Much."
Title: Re: H. Sandy
Post by: SalientAngle on October 30, 2012, 09:22:15 AM
I generally follow windmap as a matter of routine, If you would like to see an impressive map this morning, visit this link:
http://hint.fm/wind/ (http://hint.fm/wind/)
Title: Re: H. Sandy
Post by: Tim on October 30, 2012, 10:20:24 AM
Quote"Top-heavy structure" indeed. Such that we are all witnessing it wobble right now. Let's hope for our sakes that it manages to stay upright for a while yet.

When I look at times like these, I can't but believe that as humankind has grown in intelligence, it has been at the expense of wisdom.
Title: Re: H. Sandy
Post by: Captain Smollett on October 30, 2012, 11:14:56 AM
Quote from: Tim on October 30, 2012, 10:20:24 AM
Quote"Top-heavy structure" indeed. Such that we are all witnessing it wobble right now. Let's hope for our sakes that it manages to stay upright for a while yet.

When I look at times like these, I can't but believe that as humankind has grown in intelligence, it has been at the expense of wisdom.

Grog for that, Tim. 

We (as a species) seem like little children...happy only when our base needs are met with no view to longer term responsibility.  It's all impulse, nowness, "Feed ME!"  This comes in many many forms....our road systems that lead nowhere, hi-rise buildings, the bigger boat.   Et. Cetera.

Spiritual underpinnings like "I think I'll build a house on the beach because I DESERVE this view, then complain when BEACH WEATHER destroys my house because it's truly all about ME" come into play all around us.
Title: Re: H. Sandy
Post by: Captain Smollett on October 30, 2012, 05:05:30 PM
Intro paragraph sums it up:

QUALITATIVE DISCUSSION OF ATLANTIC BASIN SEASONAL HURRICANE ACTIVITY FOR 2012, Klotzbach and Gray (pdf warning) (http://hurricane.atmos.colostate.edu/forecasts/2011/dec2011/dec2011.pdf)
Title: Re: H. Sandy
Post by: Oldrig on October 30, 2012, 08:54:52 PM
John,
I come to the problem of sensationalization (and trivialization) of events like Hurricane (now universally called "Superstorm") Sandy from the perspective of somebody who was once proud to call himself a journalist--and my conclusions are pretty much the same as yours as a scientist.

This is a fascinating, and dangerous, natural phenomenon, and modern meteorology has tools that previous generations could only dream of (although budget cuts will soon cost us much of the satellite system). Professionals were wise to warn the public, and the professional sources of information, like NOAA's NHC and the Plymouth State site in New Hampshire, supplied lots of tools to track the storm's progress and help the public prepare for its possibly disastrous effects.

But none of this was helped by having so-called "reporters" stand on beachfronts with the wind whistling into their microphones while they waited for the dreaded "Frankenstorm" to make landfall. The constant harping on the size and anticipated ferocity of this storm did not inform the public. It was just another attempt to feed the beast of the 24-hour news-tainment cycle.

Gone are the days of fact-checking in journalism; gone are the days of sober analysis. The so-called media covered this storm the way they have been covering the presidential campaign -- like a damned video game or a horse race.

Okay, now I've vented, too.

That's why I now write about boating and cruising.

--Joe
P.S. My heart goes out to the folks in the mid-Atlantic region, Long Island Sound and the upper Chesapeake, who suffered such damage. I needlessly worried about  my own boat, which rode out the storm safely on a heavyweight mooring--stripped of everything. Some predictions called for gusts up to 100 mph on the Massachusetts South Coast, but in my area they seem to have topped out at 65 mph. Serious, yes, but also well within the range of protection provided by a heavy mooring and a sheltered cove.
Title: Re: H. Sandy
Post by: Tim on October 30, 2012, 09:16:25 PM
Good to hear you had no problems.
Title: Re: H. Sandy
Post by: CharlieJ on October 30, 2012, 09:26:08 PM
Quote from: Oldrig on October 30, 2012, 08:54:52 PM

Gone are the days of fact-checking in journalism; gone are the days of sober analysis. The so-called media covered this storm the way they have been covering the presidential campaign -- like a damned video game or a horse race.



P.S. My heart goes out to the folks in the mid-Atlantic region, Long Island Sound and the upper Chesapeake, who suffered such damage.

Amen on the first part. When my son was in 11th grade he had a friend who had just moved over from Germany. This 17 yr old wondered why we didn't have "NEWS Programs" on our TV stations, like Europe did. That was in 1987..

I miss Cronkite, and Edward R. Murrow, and folks of their ilk. And I vividly recall listening to the radio ( during WW II) to Walter Winchell.

Sadly, it's now all "entertainment"

On the second part, mine too for sure. But know that hundreds and hundreds of plain people are en route to assist however they can. We on the southern coasts KNOW what it's like.
Title: Re: H. Sandy
Post by: Captain Smollett on October 30, 2012, 09:39:33 PM
Quote from: Oldrig on October 30, 2012, 08:54:52 PM

Okay, now I've vented, too.


Grog for the vent...

You've hit upon something I was trying to say in my fog of hatred for the way this stuff gets reported:  The hype does no one any good at all and may well do harm in the long run.

Do these same people that hype up nothing, smaller events then take responsibility when folks don't take the real warnings seriously next time? 

It just seems like too much of a game; there are real stakes at play, but those playing the game don't seem to be the ones staking it.

Another gripe is that it (the reporting) is all so US-Centric in general and "urban center" centric in particular.  Look at the contrast in coverage for Katrina in NO vs Biloxi, or even Opal.  I lived through Opal several HUNDRED miles inland...I helped 'clean up' after that storm.  We had impassable roads and people without power over a month after the storm.

Most people I've met never even heard of Opal.

Or, how about Mitch?  22,000 dead.  Cat 5 at (or just prior to) landfall, and stalled, still hurricane strength, for THIRTY-SIX HOURS.  Imagine if Sandy was Cat 5 and lasted not a few hours but a day and a half.

I guess another thing I'd like to see is some blankety blank blank consistency from these folks.  Do they care about human life and property damage?  Then they should look at the "playing field" as outside their own stinking coverage/ratings area.
Title: Re: H. Sandy
Post by: CapnK on October 30, 2012, 09:53:53 PM
Media bias is obvious. I have seen lots of pics of power boats in the coverage, and relatively few of sailboats.

...especially *cool* sailboats, like Albergs, Rhodes, Westerly's, CD's, etc...

;D

(Maybe that's because us "blowboaters" are smarter about prepping our craft for storms? I'd like to think so...  :D )

Discounting certain square-rigged blowboaters... ::) A real shame, what happened with the Bounty. Can't believe they even tried to do what they did. Makes absolutely no sense, to me...

Saw a news bit though where it was said that the deceased female crew member, Claudene Christian, claimed a distant family tie to the Christian of the *original* Bounty. Spooky, that, if true...
Title: Re: H. Sandy
Post by: CharlieJ on October 30, 2012, 09:59:58 PM
and so sad to lose people unnecessarily.

As I've maintained (on here) for a long time

-getting caught out is one thing- Ya GOTTA deal with it

-going out INTO it is dumb
Title: Re: H. Sandy
Post by: maxiSwede on October 31, 2012, 10:15:11 AM
Hi guys, I am currently back in Sweden with my family for a few days.

I have followed the media here with the 'hype' as discussed and I agree with John and Oldrig.

One thing I find hard to understand, is when it was well known(?) 1-2 days in advance that the sea level would rise some 10+-15 ft and flood car tunnels etc, HOW on EARTH could it still be that this morning the front page of the local newspaper shows a photo ofthe tunnel at Battery Park, S Manhattan completely jammed with cars, stuck in the water????

Could it be that people are so ****-ing stupid that they drive around there knowint too well what was going to happen?

*sighing and rolling my eyes* ???
Title: Re: H. Sandy
Post by: SalientAngle on October 31, 2012, 01:37:31 PM
Maxi, the European Center for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts on 10/23/12 warned that sandy would hit the us east coast on 10/29 with incredible accuracy... six days warning... other models at the time had it heading into the atlantic... all the models converged into a very accurate forecast by by 10/26... the European model is widely seen as the best at predicting hurricanes, their prediction is made on more powerful computers and simulations run in higher resolution over a longer time... nobel physics, imho, but, as you state, there was plenty of warning, sigh.....
Title: Re: H. Sandy
Post by: SalientAngle on October 31, 2012, 02:24:20 PM
just as a footnote, maxiswede, in 1996 I had plenty of warning on hurricane fran well inland from the coast just north of raleigh, nc, the eye of the storm passed over my house, I had so much warning, damage was minimized to skylights broken by debris and trees... but, no electricity, again well inland, for two weeks... national guard trucks provided ice and water, a fema center operated on capital blvd in raleigh for more than six months, mountains of debris were ground into chips that turned into mountains, literally, blue tarps on roofs in the area were still being maintained nine months later... granted, it was a wind event on saturated ground inland with trees falling and not a tidal event with that sort of force, but the damage was unreal, I was working with usda at the time, provided disaster communications, et al... hurricane floyd, a flooding event in most part, was also traumatic in 1999, again, as an USDA empoyee with extension responsibilites, I was involved in relief efforts, and, it was traumatic... you would have to understand how many barrels of pesticides and other caustic materials sit on farms in eastern north cackalackey to understand... the non-point source pollution was horrific, along the tar river cattle were dead in the trees, well, i am saddened just reflecting, cheers to you and godspeed to the folks impacted by sandy...
Title: Re: H. Sandy
Post by: rorik on November 01, 2012, 01:56:59 PM
Quote.........There's a word I need to describe myself, my thoughts, that's missing. The closest thing we have to it that I can think of is "misanthrope", but that's not right, because I don't hate mankind, at all. But I look at all of the devastation and problems caused by this storm, and the only reason they are such is not because of mankind, but because of *too much* mankind. Or too much mankind, all in one place.....

For me, "misanthrope" is exactly the right word.
Using the following quote from Alceste in Moliere's play Misanthrope, it clearly defines the feeling that most of humanity is either actively partaking in things which are not right, or remaining willfully ignorant of the wrongs occurring all around them.

"My hate is general, I detest all men;
Some because they are wicked and do evil,
Others because they tolerate the wicked,
Refusing them the active vigorous scorn
Which vice should stimulate in virtuous minds."



Edit by Captain Smollett: Fixed Quote Tag
Title: Re: H. Sandy
Post by: Captain Smollett on November 02, 2012, 01:15:02 AM
Grog to you, Rorik, wonderful stuff.
Title: Re: H. Sandy
Post by: maxiSwede on November 02, 2012, 09:57:16 AM
Sad story, also shows how vulnerable the modern society really is when Mother Nature throws a jab.

All my best to all those people who suffer in the affected area.
Title: Re: H. Sandy
Post by: marujo_sortudo on November 03, 2012, 06:58:38 PM
I didn't see this post before Sandy hit, as we were too busy seeking safe harbor, preparing the boat, deciding to abandon ship and find shelter.  Here's a summary of our experiences.

Sandy didn't seem much of a concern at first, but we started monitoring the forecast tracks and looking for likely safe harbors in our area.  We ended up in Port Washington, Long Island, NY and ended up deciding that it was as good of a safe harbor as any before we had a clear idea of how the storm surge would effect the sound.  It's a very welcoming harbor here to transients with moorings that are free for the first day or two and other welcoming services.  Turns out the guy who maintains the moorings here makes them quite tough (we found ourselves sitting on a 1200# mushroom with 40' chain and a longish pendant made of fresh, nicely spliced NE Ropes 3-strand nylon in 9' MLLW.)  When we found out the eye would pass south of us, the forecasts predicted the worst winds to come out of the NE and slowly shift around to the SE over the next day and a half.  In those directions, we had .1 to .2 miles of fetch and only a few moored boats and some empty docks upwind of us.  As such, this seemed like a good place to stay.  I prepared the boat by stripping the genoa, dodger and some other bits, lashing everything else down, putting chafe protection on the mooring pendant, running a chafe protected backup mooring pendant, and putting out a Fortress anchor to the East on 10:1 scope with chafe protection on the rode. 

We were on the fence for over a day about whether to stay with the boat and try and address chafe and/or fend off flotsam. When the forecast refined and a potentially record storm surge was forecast with winds gusting to hurricane force, we decided to leave.  It wasn't an easy decision to make at all, but we decided we didn't want to put any first responders in harms way and we were afraid that the surge might float whole marinas off their pilings.  We packed up some basic supplies of food, clothes, phones, etc. and went ashore with no idea where we would stay.  We had put the call out for lodging on facebook, etc. and luckily we found out some fellow liveaboard friends of ours had an aunt that lived a mere 9 miles away.

(continued)
Title: Re: H. Sandy
Post by: marujo_sortudo on November 03, 2012, 07:26:41 PM
We experienced the storm itself like a lot of folks do on land.  Watched the ridiculous circus of TV coverage, with all the reporters being in all the places people aren't supposed to be and really setting a bad example for them.  Also, apparently, getting a baseball cap blown off their head is an indication of big wind to them.  Clearly no sailors in that bunch.  Then, of course, the power went out.  Cell phones quickly lost coverage and/or battery power.  The wind picked up and branches hit the roof all night long.  We were still in a house surrounded by big trees so we had something to be concerned about.  Of course, I was at least as worried about Mimi Rose's fate, as I'm sure you can imagine.  The last information I had before the Internet and TV died was of ever increasing predictions for the storm surge and I had visions of boats lifting their moorings and marinas drifting free.

It was a couple of days until we were able to make it back to the harbor.  As it was, the harbor faired pretty well.  11 boats were aground and while some marinas had come within about 6" of floating off their main pilings after clearing their finger pilings, none did.  Chafe was the main enemy.  Several of the boats apparently had bow mounted anchors chafe through their pendants.  Some boats on the hard had fallen partially off their jackstands, but were for the most part upright and lightly damaged.  Mimi Rose faired well, too, with only some chafe damage, but mostly in the comestic realm.  Our dinghy was safe where we had stored it on the hard and undamaged.  In all, I feel that we were lucky that the storm surge wasn't another foot and that winds weren't sustained for a longer period or of greater force.  I'm glad we found a relatively sheltered harbor and, at that, a harbor with generally beefy moorings.  I'm also glad that we didn't stay aboard.  As much as I love Mimi Rose, I don't know that there's much more we could have done had we been aboard.

As for the future.  I did take the opportunity to make one more bit of boat gear.  With our bobstay, chafe is even more of a concern for us than it is for most boats.  As such, I decided to build our own, custom storm pendant that we can attach to any mooring if a major storm is coming.  It's very beefy and includes the important addition of plastic tubing over the parts that could be chafed by our bobstay our wooden chocks.  Hopefully, we'll have to wait a long, long time before we have a chance to deploy it.  A couple of days ago, we used our signal flags to spell out "Thank you."  We feel lucky to have survived Sandy with no losses.
Title: Re: H. Sandy
Post by: maxiSwede on November 04, 2012, 06:08:58 AM
@Marujo

Thanks for the first hand account, and good to hear you came out of it as safe and without damage as you did. ;D
Title: Re: H. Sandy
Post by: Frank on November 04, 2012, 05:45:04 PM
Very sad for the loss of lives. A nieghbor sent pics of my cottage a few days ago. Only 2 shingle tabs missing. So far it's stood up to Irene (right through the eye with 120 after) and Sandy. I feel both lucky and blessed. Vickie and I were in NYC a few mths back.....hard to imagine the devestation now!!  Mother nature has power....