Hurricane Irma

[Owly055]

Perhaps it's time to focus on Irma, and what people in South Florida are doing to protect their boats.  It's always a good idea to have a plan.   By the way Saint Irma is the patron saint of women who've been abused or molested.    Hermina Grivot , also known as Irma Grivot, Saint Irma or Saint Hermina, born in 1866 in France,  beheaded in 1900 in China.  I predict that she will pass right over Mar a Lago  at full strength and just sit there for a few days ;-)   If I was anywhere in the vicinity, I'd be for making an escape while I could!!   This is said to be the most wrathful hurricane ever recorded in the Atlantic, with winds approaching 200 mph.   

                                                                              H.W.

[s/v Faith]

Absolutely true.

  I split this post off from the thread on Hurricane Harvey...  so many of our members are in the path of this killer storm.  I have been refreshing the projections on bearpaws over and over hoping for a shift to the East to take her out to sea....

  So many of our members in her path, so much destruction already.

I do want to say that there is a real risk that the suffering of those already hit by Harvey is not past.....  I fear their plight may be made worse as resources, and attention shifts to Irma.

[s/v Faith]

Who all is in her path?

Kurt, what kind of web have you weaved for your fleet (surely an example)...

Frank, any word from contacts? Anything on your cottage?  Is your boat in Black Sound or Indiantown?

Where is everyone in their prep?

[SeaHusky]

I hope everyone of you gets through this one unharmed!
I have seen pictures from Sint Martin and the phrase "paradise lost" comes to mind.
I fear the Caribbean will never be the same as the many stories I have fueld my dreams with.
Stay safe everyone!

[s/v Faith]

From Bearpaws Tropical Weather....

[Bob J (ex-misfits)]

Good luck to everyone down that way.
May God look over all of those in the islands that have lost everything.
Doesn't one of the sailfar members live on their boat in Marathon?

[Lars]

I will be leaving tomorrow afternoon westbound on the icw heading towards perdido bay from panama city. Do not trust this storm until it turns . I figure another 100 miles between us won't hurt.this is the first time I have ever  moved for a storm. Went through Opal in Mobile back in 95 or 96.

[s/v Faith]

Looks like NHC has shifted the track slightly West...  good news for Georgia and the Carolina's...  hope it disapates quickly! 

[s/v Faith]

I will be leaving tomorrow afternoon westbound on the icw heading towards perdido bay from panama city. Do not trust this storm until it turns . I figure another 100 miles between us won't hurt.this is the first time I have ever  moved for a storm. Went through Opal in Mobile back in 95 or 96.

Wise move.  Faith is on the hard north of Pensacola....  I think a turn that far West is pretty unlikely at this point....

[lance on cloud nine]

Best of luck to all of you! If anyone evacuates by highway as far north as Indiana....I have a few extra rooms and a large fenced yard that will hold many large trucks/campers/trailer boats. I am in Columbus In. 2miles off I-65. 70 miles north of Louisville, 40 miles south of Indy. Open invitation.

[ralay]

I think Bubba and his WS32 Emma are/were in Fort Pierce.  Wishing the best to him and anyone else down there.  This year's hurricane season makes me never want to come south again.

[Owly055]

I will be leaving tomorrow afternoon westbound on the icw heading towards perdido bay from panama city. Do not trust this storm until it turns . I figure another 100 miles between us won't hurt.this is the first time I have ever  moved for a storm. Went through Opal in Mobile back in 95 or 96.

     A wise move I suspect........ Most folks in Florida in the projected path of Irma don't have that sort of option....... From the sat view, it looks like the Perdido river up toward Seminole would offer some excellent very isolated and protected hurricane holes if one were staying on board.  On the Atlantic coast there looks to be no place to run....no place to hide.   You can't run away to the north very well, with the hurricane nipping at your heels all the way.  With the storm moving at 16 mph estimated, one would need a lot of head start to stay ahead, especially as the rotational winds are completely against you, unlike Harvey where the winds would have been in your favor sailing to Mexico, but of course Katia hit that area shortly after Harvey.  Bermuda looks like a refuge from Irma, but it is right in the crosshairs of Jose coming along behind it.   
     If I currently had a sailboat, I'd want to be cruising Scotland or Norway, or BC or the Inside Passage right now.   The southeast coast, gulf, and Caribbean look really unhealthy.    The only safe place to be is on the bottom in very deep water. 

                                                                                           H.W.

[s/v Faith]

Who do we have where in Irma's path?

The current track over land will be devastating for the keys, Miami and south Florida....  but if it holds could really knock the storm down to quite survivable levels for many people North...

Be safe everyone!

[CharlieJ]

My oldest son, three grand kids and 6 great grand kids in Jacksonville and Fernandina  :'(

[Bubba the Pirate]

Thanks for thinking of us, Ralay.
[PS: from a coupke weeks ago: I'm a fellow GIMPer from way back.]

I'm still truck driving until the first week of October, so I will be out of Harm's Way because the company wants to protect their equipment too. I actually passed through town on Monday and did my best to reduce windage and tie things down and button her up. It's pretty much up to Davy Jones and King Neptune at this point.

Good news is in the last eight or ten hours they've reduced forecasted winds by about 25 miles an hour for Fort Pierce as the storm shifts slightly Westward. That may be slightly better for us on the Treasure Coast and slightly worse for those on the Gulf Coast, but I think we're all going to get walloped.

I have some friends who volunteered to check on Emma as long as the storm's aftermath is not too bad. Otherwise I'm due to be in town for my so-called weekend around the 18th and I'll be able to see for myself. I'll give you a report.

[s/v Faith]

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL112017
500 PM EDT Fri Sep 08 2017

Latest data from an Air Force Hurricane Hunter plane a few hours ago
indicate that Irma's intensity continues to fluctuate, and the
winds are estimated at 135 kt. The last minimum central pressure
was 925 mb. Another reconnaissance plane will check Irma soon.

The environment is favorable for Irma to maintain its category 4
status, and only unpredictable eyewall replacement cycles could
result in intensity fluctuations during the next 48 hours. The
interaction of the hurricane's circulation with Cuba will probably
not result in any relevant change in intensity. In summary, the NHC
forecast brings Irma near south Florida as a category 4 hurricane.
After landfall, interaction with land and an increase in wind shear
should induce gradual weakening.

Satellite images and radar fixes from Cuba indicate that Irma has
slowed down and is now moving toward the west or 280 degrees at
about 10 kt. The hurricane should continue on this track for the
next 12 hours to 24 hours, and this track will bring the core of
Irma very close to the north coast of Cuba. After that time, Irma
should reach the southwestern edge of the subtropical high and begin
to move toward the northwest and north-northwest toward the Florida
peninsula. The precise moment of this turn is still uncertain, and
that is why NHC emphasizes that nobody should focus on the exact
track of the center. This afternoon's NHC forecast was again
adjusted a little bit westward following the trend of the ECMWF
model and both the HFIP corrected consensus and the FSU
Superensemble. In fact, these 3 aids continued to be tightly packed.

[s/v Faith]

Her encounter with Cuba seems to have diminished her speeds a bit, I wonder how people on the west coast might have prepaired differently had they known they were in the direct path?

[s/v Faith]

I will be leaving tomorrow afternoon westbound on the icw heading towards perdido bay from panama city. Do not trust this storm until it turns . I figure another 100 miles between us won't hurt.this is the first time I have ever  moved for a storm. Went through Opal in Mobile back in 95 or 96.

As further confirmation of the value of following your gut....  Walton county is now under voluntary evacuation....  good move captain.

[Owly055]

     I look forward to hearing from Lars.... where he got to, and how he secured his vessel, weather he chose to ride it out aboard or headed home.... assuming he's not a live aboard.   It looks to me like a great choice with the narrow and winding river at the head of the bay.   Below is a description of the Perdido River.   Emphasis on "deep and slow moving".   The Sat view shows lots of small dead end channels, etc, where one could presumably tie off to trees ashore, and be pretty sheltered.   What would seem a near perfect place for staying aboard in this kind of weather.

                                                                          H.W.


The Perdido River is a 60-mile long river that begins at the confluence of Fletcher Creek and Perdido Creek, approximately 8 miles northwest of Atmore in Escambia County, Alabama. This river defines the boundary between Alabama and Florida along nearly its entire length on its winding east – southeast course to Perdido Bay on the Gulf of Mexico. The Perdido, or "lost," River was named by the Spanish who occupied its surrounding areas until 1813.

The Perdido is a typical blackwater river of the southeastern Coastal Plain. It is characterized by a sandy bottom and a deep, slow moving channel that flows through forested swamps and wetlands. Tannins (acidic, organic compounds) are released into the water by decaying vegetation from these forested areas, resulting in transparent, dark-stained "black" water that looks much like tea.

The Perdido River is considered to be the highest quality free-flowing blackwater river remaining in the southern Coastal Plain. Its corridor encompasses 120,000 acres of Alabama's largest and most ecologically significant blackwater watershed. Near the headwater area of Rabun, Alabama, acres of pitcher plant bogs and forested wetlands form the beginning of the Perdido River corridor. Other habitats within the corridor include slash pine flatwoods, upland longleaf pine savannahs, marsh wetlands, forested wetlands, and Atlantic white cedar swamps which are rare this far west in the Gulf Coastal Plain. These habitats are utilized by a diverse array of plants and animals including many rare and endangered species.

[Owly055]

     I was just informed by a friend..........and confirmed it on Wikipedia, that I have the dubious "honor" of sharing the name of 3 hurricanes and 3 tropical cyclonic storms in the Eastern Pacific.   1980,86,92,98, 2004 & 16........... '80, '98, and '04 were full blown hurricanes..... none did any direct damage, considerately staying well offshore, and dissipating off California, though the latter did cause flooding and significant rainfall in Baja and Arizona.   The one in '98 began as a tropical wave in the Atlantic off the coast of Africa, and didn't turn into a hurricane until it had crossed the isthmus into the Pacific.

     They seem to recycle names.......... I've had enough of that kind of "honor" for one lifetime I think   ;-)    I'm glad my name was not on the list for Atlantic hurricanes this year!!

                                                             H.W.