Hurricane discussion; Red flags are flying!

[Adam]

Well, if you believe the news, we're getting pounded down here in Key West...

It's actually just been hours of drizzle... but they're hyping it up. I'm sure it's stronger up the Keys, but it's not that big a deal for us...

[CapnK]

It's one of "those" situations...

The last 3 or four forecasts have had the center passing within a few miles of here, if not directly overhead. I feel like:

If I go up the river and dig in somewhere, the storm will stay pretty weak, not restrengthen much when it comes back off Florida, and be mostly a rain event that I spent a whole day avoiding.  ::) :-\

If I stay in the marina, just off the coast it'll 'unexpectedly' blow up into a Cat 2 or more howling monster that'll set some kinds of records, like "the most complete yet narrow swath of destruction we've seen since (fill in some date from pre-1960)".  ;D

Will just have to watch and see what develops today, while getting ready for the 'unexpected'. It's holding together fairly well, and now the forecasters are starting to pepper the discussions with talk of it staying that way, and strengthening once it gets back out to sea. This is called "hedging your bet", I think... :)

Glad it was a non-event for you, Adam!

[CapnK]

What a day!  :) Last night, storm prep lasted until 1 AM, and then I was too keyed up to fall asleep until almost 3 AM. Slept restlessly, woken a few times by various things (like the neighbors inquisitive cat coming into the cabin and meowing me awake @ 6 AM) until about 7:30 AM, when I heard a loud crash on deck.

Jumped up to see that one of my tarp supports had fallen over, and that had scared crewdog Molly. The dock neighbors cat was involved, I saw it running away from the boat. Molly jumped ship, and by the time I got on deck I saw her heading up the ramp by the ship store, going toward the parking lot.

By the time I reset the tarp, hopped on the bike, and got up there, she was nowhere in sight. I looked all over and called for her, no luck. After searching for a while in a half-mile radius, calling and looking and tripling back over everywhere, I gave up. I was too tired to put up with it, & I figured that if the Good Deity intended for her to be a CrewDog any longer, she'd be back, so I went back to the boat and crashed.

That may sound callous, but I was exhausted, fed up, she's is a smart dog, and if she didn't want to be here, than I'd let her to her fate. In short, she picked the wrong time to be a 'bad dog', the Capn wasn't dealing with mutinous crew, no matter how much he loves 'em... :)

The cat-owning dock neighbors - who knew by now the root cause of all this - found her about 9 and cajoled her back down to the boat. I was asleep when she came back aboard.

I woke up again around noon-thirty, made coffee and returned some phone calls, and then finished storm preps. Everything was good to go by 2:30 as the rain became constant. It huffed and it puffed, but it didn't blow the marina down, although it did damage a few docks and boats. The worst of the storm was over by about 8:30 PM, when I stretched out in the bunk for a little brief R&R.

I woke up from that at about 3AM ;D , so here are some videos I shot during the day for y'all to enjoy (click the pics). Taken from a slot between the companionway boards, looking east, probably around 4-4:30 this afternoon. They are .avi files, about 3.7M each. Enjoy!

   

Dan, thanks for putting in the good words! :)

[AdriftAtSea]

Any time Capn' K.  BTW, is that a sunsei solar panel I see on your boat??? I have two of the 130 W models... they rock.

[s/v Faith]

It was a dark and stormy night.....

  But s/v Faith came through just fine also.

The water is still up about 4 feet in the marina, and I fear it will rise some more.... the dock house is in real danger.

  Couple bimminis torn up (those who elected not to take them down) and some other minor stuff, but thankfully all is well.

[s/v Faith]

Unfortunately, I posted too soon. :(

 Turns out the marina right across the river from me (about 4 miles away) had a much worse time of it.  Looks like a tornado came through there. :o

One boat sunk, several filled with water (sitting on the bottom, but gunwales above the waterline) couple of boats holed, several damaged and one 40 yards up on the shore.  These are friends of mine, boats in my club, that I race with. :'(

 They have fixed docks, and usually require all boats to leave the marina for hurricanes, but I guess they did not since this was just a tropical depression'.  You can never be too careful.  

 Do you have a good storm plan?  If not, please consider what you will do, and get it ready.

[s/v Faith]

Some pictures;

http://raggedpointyachtclub.sytes.net/Pictures/2006/Hurricane_Ernesto/

That is Peter surveying the dammage in pic #1
(bigger pics will be available soon)

[AdriftAtSea]

The bigger versions of the pictures don't seem to be loading... :(

[s/v Faith]

Some pictures;

http://raggedpointyachtclub.sytes.net/Pictures/2006/Hurricane_Ernesto/

That is Peter surveying the dammage in pic #1
(bigger pics will be available soon)

[AdriftAtSea]

LOL... missed tht part of your post... ;)

[Captain Smollett]

I hope NOEL goes easy on all that remain in his path (and prayers for the DR).

Craig, Connie, Sarah (wherever you are), keep a weather eye open.

Hope you guys see calm seas, or at least a nice, sheltered cove.

[CapnK]

Time to sit up and start paying attention, I reckon, and get those hurlicane preps underway, make sure that the boat is ready for an 'evacuation', and - worst case - a stay of days to possibly weeks anchored elsewhere...

http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/tracking/at200802_5day.html#a_topad

[Tim]

G G Good Luck  Will be watchin' and hopin' for the best :o

[Captain Smollett]

That's just great.   >:(

Not good timing, for me, there Bertha!  You could wait a month or two, and my boat might possibly be in a MUCH safer place.

Errrrggggghhhhhh.

[hearsejr]

 in the last few years I didn't worry too much, but now I have a boat that I cann't keep in my yard so I  starting getting edgy

[CharlieJ]

and we are about 100 miles north of the northern fringe expected. I would have expected Storm warnings, but here's what's up here-



That hoist says "hurricane". NOT one of my favorite flag signals.

Here's what the bay looks like at the moment, over 24 hours prior to expected landfall, several hundred miles SOUTHWEST of us.



Here's our forecast ( guess?) for tonight-

Late Afternoon: A 30 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 94. Heat index values as high as 101. East wind around 16 mph, with gusts as high as 21 mph.


Tonight: A 50 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 78. East wind between 11 and 15 mph, with gusts as high as 20 mph

Here's what it's REALLY doing right now-

Wind Speed: SE 25 G 33 MPH

Copied from the same page ;D

Way out over the gulf you can now begin to see the outer bands of Dolly. We should only get the fringe, with 35- 40 mph winds ( I hope)

Laura is going to the marina when she gets off work to be sure of chafing gear and add some extra lashings to the sail cover- maybe take down the bimini. I've got stuff picked up, loose gear lashed down, etc. Should be an easy ride for us. Hope Brownsville doesn't get clobbered TO badly.

[Marc]

We are praying for you up here in Iowa. good luck, Marc

[Frank]

Hope Laura,you and your boats did OK with the winds.Any update?

[polecat]

Heard from Charliej?

[Tim]

They are fine, Grime posted some local photos on TSBB, maybe he'll share here.